From preseason No. 1 to being tagged with the overrated label in a matter of weeks, most of the Texas stock nationally was liquidated after a loss at Florida earlier this month. Heisman futures on Arch Manning were ripped up, vaunted personnel defensively was questioned and the expectation was the rest of the SEC slate would lay waste to the struggling Longhorns.
Then, Red River happened.
The win over then sixth-ranked Oklahoma put all season goals back in front of Texas, which has navigated a pair of upset-minded opponents to set up Saturday’s nationally ranked showdown against Vanderbilt in Austin.
On the heels of their third straight SEC win following Saturday night’s epic 17-point turnaround in the fourth quarter at Mississippi State, the Longhorns are back in control of their own destiny in the SEC title race — all this amid Steve Sarkisian having to downplay NFL overtures and signs of him losing his fastball as a play caller.
Texas is a team nobody in the SEC wants to play given its roster strengths and Manning — now with a couple clutch wins under his belt as a starter and garnering a warrior label of sorts — coming into his own after a few big-time plays against Kentucky and Mississippi State on the road. Manning’s progression may have hit a roadblock, however, as the former five-star prospect suffered a concussion late in the win over Mississippi State in Week 9. But if Manning picks up where he left off upon his return, that adds fuel to the fire of Texas causing chaos down the stretch.
Entering this week’s playoff projection at CBS Sports for the first time this season, the ninth-ranked Commodores have beaten consecutive top 25 opponents but are 2.5-point underdogs at Texas. Diego Pavia nearly led Vanderbilt to a win over the Longhorns last season before Texas held on and won five straight to land in the SEC Championship Game.
Bowl projections: Vanderbilt enters CFP bracket as SEC’s fifth team, BYU flexes as new Big 12 frontrunner
Brad Crawford
History could repeat itself this fall glancing at the Longhorns’ season-ending stretch, which includes a trip to Georgia on Nov. 15 followed by back-to-back home games to end the campaign against Arkansas and the SEC’s lone remaining unbeaten — Texas A&M.
That rivalry showdown determined who advanced to Atlanta in 2024, and should the Aggies and Longhorns win out, that same scenario will unfold.
Why playoff chaos ensues if Texas keeps winning
Texas is not one of the five SEC teams currently projected to reach the playoff but pushes ahead of Vanderbilt and Oklahoma in the league’s at-large pecking order this weekend if the Longhorns win.
Ten wins is the magic number in college football’s most competitive conference to grab an at-large invite, and we’ll have a better idea of how the selection committee views Texas when they reveal their first rankings on Nov. 4.
Say what you want about the Longhorns not looking the part after the overtime win at Kentucky and getting by in Starkville. SEC wins are hard, as players have admitted, and if they’re able to take out a couple more top-10 conference titans in the coming weeks, the team we thought was a shoo-in to get back to the bracket will be thriving.
As it stands, the SEC and Big Ten are the only multi-bid guarantees in this season’s playoff. With seven teams inside the current AP top 10 from those leagues, including all of the top five, it’s obvious the SEC and Big Ten will be viewed favorably by the committee.
Further success at Texas poses potential issues for teams like Notre Dame, Texas Tech and Miami due to the threat of an additional SEC team getting in over a potential runner-up finisher in the Big 12 or ACC. If Miami wins out and loses to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, the Hurricanes will be 11-2 with three ranked wins this season.
If Texas wins out and, say, loses to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, the Longhorns would be 10-3 with four nationally ranked wins — all against top 10 teams. You can see why this would be a problem for Mario Cristobal and Miami, as an example.
Notre Dame’s best-case scenario is a 10-2 finish with ranked wins over USC and likely Navy, as long as the unbeaten Midshipmen handle North Texas this weekend. And, in Texas Tech’s case, the Red Raiders need to win out and take the Big 12 to guarantee a spot in the playoff.
This chain reaction-like event that could come to fruition should Texas win its final four games has major implications outside of the SEC for programs assuming they’ll be in the playoff with solid finishes.
However, it’s not that simple, and during a season filled with parity, we’ve come to expect the unexpected.