Hazardous weather warnings are already popping up on forecast pages around Texas as a strong storm system begins its sweep of the state this week. Storm clouds dropping potentially flood-inducing amounts of rain, slamming towns with hail or producing damaging winds plague the tail end of the Texas workweek and most of the weekend.
This round of storms will begin brewing over the Texas Panhandle first. After almost entirely dodging the first wave of storms Wednesday night, April 9, precipitation odds quickly climb for the region on Thursday. However, rain totals are still projected to remain below .1 inch from Dalhart to Amarillo, but the National Weather Service hasn’t yet ruled out hail that reaches 1 inch in diameter or more.
It’s Friday and through the weekend when the real threat looms for the most northern towns of Texas. There’s still debate over whether a strong round of storms will breach the Texas border by Friday, but rain chances hover in the 70% to 80% range that night across the region. Some of these storms have the potential to become severe, including hail or strong winds.
Saturday afternoon and evening will be gloomy, undoubtedly, across the Texas Panhandle. Residents may want to brace for severe impacts mid-weekend.
“Many meteorological signs point to this potentially unfolding as a heavy rain event more so than a severe than a severe event, especially if precipitation manages to fill in across the Panhandles” the National Weather Service Amarillo office warns. “If any severe storms should develop, all severe hazards could be possible to with the 10-40% chances for [greater than] 1 inch of rain.”
A hazardous weather outlook has already been issued for the Texas Panhandle, but it’s Thursday through Saturday when the NWS says storms could become strong to severe.
It’s about this same time as Dallas begins to see action from this large-scale storm event across Texas. Rain odds creep across North Texas on Friday and linger through the weekend, peaking at 70% on Sunday.
On Saturday, a jet streak is expected to move in from North Mexico, creating a stormy forecast for the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex by that night.
“There looks to be sufficient shear and instability to support a few strong severe thunderstorms, particularly west of U.S. 281,” the NWS Dallas-Fort Worth office predicts.
Near daily shower and thunderstorm odds are in the cards from Sunday into next week for the area. While there’s still a lot that could change in the coming days, the national forecaster says severe storms are in the tea leaves.
“Regardless, this is a favored regime for daily strong to potentially severe storms in the southern Great Plains, and as such will need to be watched for potential impacts to the region,” the Dallas office warns.
Odds are rapidly rising for heavy rains, bringing flooding threats, and severe storms in South Central Texas, including San Antonio. Thunderstorm odds are relatively low in the region throughout the rest of the workweek, but they begin to creep up as the weekend rolls in.
“A pattern shift is seen in the long-term forecast with rain chances persisting over the area,” the NWS Austin-San Antonio office says. “Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected within this pattern, with some potential for locally heavy rainfall and severe weather.”