Texas football will beat Vanderbilt with Matthew Caldwell at quarterback.
Yeah, that means Texas Longhorns will beat the Commodores without starter Arch Manning.
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It’s a small sample size as far as playing time is concerned, but Texas’ senior backup has a calm, cool demeanor that makes him an ideal candidate to step in and go toe-to-toe with Diego Pavia.
Texas quarterback Matthew Caldwell warms up before a game against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 11, 2025, in Dallas. Texas won 23-6.
Jeffrey McWhorter/Associated Press
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Plus, he’s been instant offense, making him an instant fan favorite. He has some nice backup numbers — a .727 completion percentage, the most important touchdown pass of the season and 64 rushing yards on only two carries — but becoming the starter will require much more, not with numbers but in managing a game plan that can get the Horns a fourth SEC win to keep their CFP hopes aflame.
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Caldwell spent most of Saturday evening’s win at Mississippi State as an interested sideline party, but when Manning took a wicked shot to the back of the head on a scramble on the first play of overtime, the Troy transfer was ready. His winning overtime touchdown pass to Emmett Mosley V will go down as possibly the greatest relief performance of Texas’ modern era, right up there with Chance Mock replacing Vince Young to power a comeback win over Texas Tech in 2003.
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Manning’s concussion will likely keep him out of action Saturday. He didn’t practice Monday, which opened the door for Caldwell — one of several heroes in Saturday’s overtime classic — to get his first career start. No trainer should rush a player back from a concussion and thankfully for the Horns, they get a bye week after this game to prepare for the final road game of the regular season Nov. 15 against the Georgia Bulldogs.
For now, it’s likely Caldwell’s time.
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“I think what he’s done is earned the respect of his teammates,” said UT head coach Steve Sarkisian. “I think his relationship with Arch is very important they have lot of respect for him that way. And then when you produce, you get respect too because his teammates know that’s not easy, to come off the bench and do what he’s done in a couple of different games.”
When asked to describe Caldwell, teammate Hero Kanu said two words: “Matty Ice.”
If Manning doesn’t dress, this will be the fifth straight season the starting quarterback in the season opener won’t start every game. QB1 hasn’t made each start since iron man Sam Ehlinger started 36 consecutive games from 2018-20.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning grabs his leg during the second half against the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Oct. 25, 2025 at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Miss.
Justin Ford/Getty Images
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Caldwell has become a microwave of sorts for Texas’ kitchen. He came off the bench to snap off a 50-yard sprint against Sam Houston earlier this season and then became a cult hero during SEC play with a 26-yard throw late against Florida after Manning lost his helmet and that spine-tingling overtime dime to Mosley.
Caldwell told Manning he wished Arch could have finished the game.
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“I told him I had his back,” Caldwell said. “We have an awesome relationship. Everybody, all the Q’s in the Q room have a great relationship. We have a super fun room, and we just push each other every day.”
The oddsmakers have installed Texas as a 3½-point favorite and the Horns should feel great about their chances to win a fourth straight even if Manning isn’t starting. Here are three reasons why the Horns can win and remain in solid contention in the SEC race:
Texas edge rusher Trey Moore applies pressure on Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia during the Longhorns’ win on Oct. 27 in Nashville. Moore broke UTSA’s school record for sacks in 2023 prior to transferring to Texas this year.
Denny Simmons/The Tennessean
Vandy isn’t an offensive juggernaut
We’re not accustomed to watching this defense get shredded but there were times when the Bulldogs dominated action. The Horns gave up 445 yards and five touchdowns, the most since a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State in 2022.
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If the Horns return to previous form, they should be able to keep the Vandy eruptions at a reasonable level. The Commodores rank 103rd nationally in scoring at 22.8 points per game, but they do house the No. 3 rushing attack at 203.3 yards per game. The Horns can’t be as leaky in the run game this time. Pavia’s legs — he’s the leading rusher with 458 yards — along with those of Austin LBJ High School legend Sedrick Alexander are Priority One for Texas linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and Co.
They Longhorns are finally back home
This will be Texas’ first game at Royal-Memorial Stadium in 42 days. Two years in the SEC has taught us the road environments are extremely difficult to navigate for visiting quarterbacks. The StarkVegas cowbells are still ringing in the ears of Manning and Co., but the Horns came out of it with a win.
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While at Troy last season, Caldwell completed 14 of 21 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown in a 38-21 loss to Iowa at 70,000-seat Kinnick Stadium. He won’t have to worry about the logistics of calling signals if he starts this one because the 100,000-plus at DKR will be LBJ Library-silent while the offense is on the field.
Caldwell is not a rookie
Caldwell has played in 28 games for four different schools. The upcoming stage is one of the largest in college football, but not one that will overwhelm him. His maturity will come in handy in would be the biggest start of his career.
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“Football is football,” Caldwell said. “It’s a 100-yard field and I think 53⅓ (yards) wide. So everywhere you go, football is going to be hard no matter what, so you can’t make it bigger than what it is.”
Is that ease with the situation that will give the Horns a great chance to win if he’s under center. With so much on the line, there doesn’t seem to any panic over there. They believe in Matthew Caldwell.