Rice University study shows Houston’s population is growing, but school enrollment is declining, creating budget challenges for districts.
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A new Rice University study found that while the Houston metropolitan area grew from 5.2 million residents in 2005 to 7.5 million in 2023, some public school districts are still grappling with enrollment declines that can translate into less state funding. The report notes that “sustained decreases in enrollment mean less funding since schools are largely funded based on the number of students who attend.”
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“Many school districts outside the urban core are experiencing rapid population growth that has huge implications for them,” Rice University researcher Courtney Thrash explained. “Building schools and adding services takes significant time and financial investment. On the other side, many districts in the urban core are experiencing enrollment decline and facing really difficult decisions about how to best serve the students that remain.”
That tension is already playing out in Conroe ISD, where district leaders are trying to close an $8 million budget gap after what officials described as the district’s first enrollment decline in nearly a decade, according to prior reporting by The Courier.
“Conroe ISD has seen a slight decline in enrollment this year,” a district spokesperson told Chron. “We are planning to open three new campuses next year to better accommodate our existing student population, while some districts are facing the difficult decision to close schools.”
The spokesperson added the district does not yet have “a direct correlation as to whether enrollment changes are due to shifting demographics, families choosing alternative education options, or other factors,” noting that enrollment is projected to remain relatively stable over the next five years.
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Rice researchers say the explanation is much more complicated than simple population growth, however. The fastest population gains in the Houston area have largely happened in smaller districts outside the urban core. The study found that some of the fastest-growing districts relative to their size were outside central Houston, including Willis ISD and Lamar CISD. Meanwhile, Houston ISD’s population grew about 11 percent between 2013 and 2023, while Pasadena ISD grew just 1.9 percent.
The report also found that births across the region have stayed relatively flat even as population surged. In other words, more people do not automatically mean more school-aged children.
“Despite population growth in the Houston MSA, the number of children born in the region has remained stagnant and the population is aging,” the report explained. “The percentage of the population below age 50 has decreased, while the percentage of the population over age 50 has increased.”
A closer look at the numbers show that in 2005, about 91,000 babies were born in the Houston metro area. In 2023, that number was about 96,500. Yet during that same span, the region’s population grew by 2.3 million people.
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That trend helps explain why districts can add residents without seeing a matching increase in enrollment. Rice’s findings also suggest population growth isn’t (and shouldn’t be) the only factor in explaining enrollment declines or estimating future enrollment.
“Student mobility—families moving into the district and enrolling their kids there—is driving significant enrollment growth,” the study noted. “Alternatively, families moving out of the district could be fueling enrollment decline.”
Researchers found that high-growth districts enrolled far more kindergarten students than would be expected based on births alone. Districts with population growth above 40 percent enrolled about 164 kindergarteners for every 100 babies born there five years earlier, compared to 93 kindergarteners for every 100 births in stagnant districts.
That pressure lands at a difficult moment for public schools, which are already facing staffing challenges. A recent University of Houston study found districts are not just struggling to hire teachers. They’re also losing experienced educators who might otherwise mentor younger ones, adding another strain as schools try to do more with fewer resources.
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Rice researchers argue that districts need more usable demographic data to make better decisions.
“Data is readily available, but accessing and analyzing it can be expensive or require specialized skills,” the report concluded.
Their recommendation is that schools consider not just total population, but also births, family mobility and the full mix of educational options available to parents, including charter schools, private schools and homeschooling.
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“Demographic studies that predict future enrollment can be very costly for districts, especially when funds are already scarce,” researchers said. “Districts would benefit from the Texas Education Agency or another state entity providing more detailed information about the demographic context at the district level, such as births and migration, as well as about the landscape of all educational options (traditional public, charter, and private schools) so they can better prepare for future enrollment.”