There’s a good reason for Republicans to be worried. It’s not just that Democrats are winning competitive special elections — it is where they are winning them.

In Louisiana, Democrat Chastity Verrett Martinez won a February special election for a statehouse district that had gone 13 points in favor of President Donald Trump in 2024.

In Georgia, Democrat Eric Gisler in December flipped a statehouse district that Trump had carried by more than 12 points in 2024.

In Mississippi in November, Democrat Justin Crosby knocked out incumbent Republican state Rep. Jon Ray Lancaster.

And it’s not a fluke. The Democratic National Committee says the party has now flipped 30 seats in state legislatures nationwide since Trump took office. Republicans have not flipped a single Democrat held legislative seat in that time.

What’s more, the DNC says Democrats have now won or overperformed in almost 90% of key state and local races nationwide during Trump’s second term. That includes this past week, when Republicans won the vacant congressional seat in Georgia that U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene had held, but with a 12 point margin of victory. Trump had carried the same district in 2024 by a whopping 37 percentage points.

It’s all an ominous sign for the Republicans, who know very well they face an uphill battle during the midterms in 2026. Historically, Republican presidents have, on average, seen 22 seats in the U.S. House flip during their midterms. Republican National Committee chair Joe Gruters said in an exclusive interview with the Texas Take that the party is raising big money and building a plan to flip a lot of the special election losses back in their favor come November.

“I think we have an incredible opportunity to defy history,” Gruters said.

But Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who runs the state Senate, is concerned that if Republicans don’t get unified fast after the runoff elections are over in May, Democrats will pick up seats in the Texas Legislature.

“We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House,” he said this week in a speech to the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation.

Republicans have held the majority in the Texas House since 2002.