We’ve made it to college football’s home stretch this season with this weekend’s games dipping into November ahead of the first playoff top 25 rankings from the selection committee next week.
This is an important weekend for several SEC teams in the league championship race. It’s an elimination event of sorts for Vanderbilt-Texas and Oklahoma-Tennessee, four squads inside the polls who sit behind Texas A&M and Alabama — among others — in the title picture.
Week 10 is significant for top-ranked Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana as well. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers are double-digits favorites against Penn State and Maryland, needing wins to maintain their standing at the top of the sport.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (6-4, 2-8 ATS); Chris Hummer (8-2, 6-4). My worst weekend in two seasons swung the door wide open for my colleague to take advantage and he did just that, nailing six picks against the spread to close the gap this season. My Mississippi State upset pick against Texas was a 17-point lead away from happening and I felt good about Missouri at Vanderbilt too until the Tigers lost quarterback Beau Pribula. It’s anybody’s game entering November.Â
Season results: Crawford (65-25 straight, 47-43 ATS); Hummer (67-23; 44-46).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Oct. 26. New users at FanDuel Sportsbook get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
Hummer (Cincinnati +7.5): There have been two methods of beating Utah this season: 1. Win up front like Texas Tech did. 2. Play mistake-free, turnover-free football and force the Utes into mistakes like BYU managed. So, can Cincinnati do either? The Bearcats’ o-line is good enough. They’ve allowed the fewest sacks in the country through eight games and rank eighth nationally in rushing yards per carry. The defensive line? We’ll see. Cincinnati is a solid 51st nationally in defensive rush success rate with the team’s one real weakness coming against the pass. As for turnovers, the Bearcats have coughed up the third fewest in the FBS. It’s hard to win in Salt Lake City. I’m not going as far to pick the upset. But I think there’ a lot of value at plus 7.5 for a Cincinnati cover. … Utah 27, Cincinnati 24.
Crawford (Cincinnati +7.5): No respect for the Bearcats and too much attention given to the Utes after a biblical beatdown of Colorado last week. Devon Dampier returns for Utah at quarterback after freshman Byrd Ficklin stole the show against the Buffaloes, and he’ll need one of his best performances to keep up Cincinnati. Brendan Sorsby has 20 touchdowns and one interception this season with seven straight wins since a three-point loss to Nebraska in the opener. The wrong team’s favored, here. … Cincinnati 30, Utah 27.
No. 2 Indiana at Maryland -23.5
Hummer (Maryland +23.5): It says a lot about the Hoosiers that they’ve entered the, “How much will they win by this week?” category of teams instead of, “Will they win?” But that’s just the reality for the Hoosiers in 2025, because they’re one of the best teams in college football. Maryland, which is coming out of an open week, is playing reasonably well this season. They’ve just cost themselves repeatedly with late-game mistakes. A young Terrapins team could get blown out, but I think they keep it close enough. … Indiana 34, Maryland 14.
Crawford (Indiana -23.5): Maryland’s early-season success has come to a screeching halt in Big Ten play on the heels of three consecutive losses following a 4-0 start. Indiana shows up every week, scores a lot of points and effectively pounds the opposition at the line of scrimmage. I’m expecting more of the same Saturday, though the Terps are capable of putting up a bit of resistance if Malik Washington makes plays through the air. Take the over in this game if you had to play a side. … Indiana 48, Maryland 24.
Hummer (Ole Miss -12.5): South Carolina played its best game of the season last week in a loss to Alabama. So, there’s at least some evidence the Gamecocks can keep this close. LaNorris Sellers is going to have to run a lot for them to do so. The Rebels are a bad run defense – 110th nationally in rushing yards per play – but it’s not like South Carolina at 131st nationally in rushing yards per play manages to generate much ground yardage outside of Sellers scrambles. Maybe Ole Miss comes out lethargic after a big win over Oklahoma. But I just don’t see South Carolina keeping pace in this game. … Ole Miss 34, South Carolina 20.
Crawford (Ole Miss -12.5): Don’t assume that the Gamecocks will play the Rebels as competitive as last weekend’s last-second loss to Alabama. Multiple factors were at play there — South Carolina playing at home, the Crimson Tide coming off four straight games against ranked opponents, etc. This matchup isn’t as favorable for Shane Beamer’s team given how much pressure this Ole Miss offense puts on a defense. The Rebels should cover, here. … Ole Miss 31, South Carolina 17.
Hummer (NC State +6.5): This is a big game for Dave Doeren. The Wolfpack have lost four of their last five games, including blowout defeats to Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, and the heat is turning up on his tenure. Georgia Tech, for its part, is off to its best start in 59 years. I will say, though, the Yellow Jackets do show cracks on occasion. They play a lot of close games and their defense, which is playing well recently, does have a habit of busting with regularity (113th nationally in plays allowed of 20-plus yards). Given the stakes for NC State and an offense that can still put up points in bunches, I like NC State to keep it close enough for a cover. … Georgia Tech 34, NC State 30.
Crawford (Georgia Tech -6.5): There are few environments tougher in the ACC than playing at Carter-Finley Stadium on a Saturday night for a visiting team, but the Yellow Jackets are battle-tested. The Wolfpack are limping after getting whipped at Pitt, but do have the talent on offense to keep this one competitive if they’re able to limit Haynes King and the Georgia Tech rushing attack. Much has to go right for NC State to keep this one within the number and Georgia Tech appears to be a team on a mission as the ACC’s last remaining unbeaten. … Georgia Tech 31, NC State 24.
Hummer (SMU +12.5): The Mustangs are coming off a terrible loss, but the value is still very much the home team. SMU’s offense isn’t what it’s been in recent years, but Kevin Jennings does enough with his legs for SMU to cause problems. And while the Hurricanes offense is very efficient, a top 10 Mustangs rushing defense could force Carson Beck to, ahem, force the ball. Plus, this is a big game for the SMU program. There are so many former Miami players on the SMU roster, not to mention a bunch of coaching staff connections. You should see the best of SMU. … Miami 37, SMU 34.
Crawford (SMU +12.5): Did the Mustangs get caught looking ahead to this one last week at Wake Forest? It’s possible. Miami disposed of Stanford despite a slow start with relative ease and knows what has to happen to get to the playoff from here. Rhett Lashlee, rumored to be a potential candidate at Arkansas this cycle, faces his toughest matchup in the trenches since losing at Penn State in last year’s playoff. … Miami 31, SMU 20.
Hummer (Georgia -7.5): Honestly, it’s hard to pick this game given we have no idea how Florida will respond post-Billy Napier. But I’m of the opinion Georgia is a better team overall, especially with an open week to prepare. The one area the Bulldogs have shown vulnerability is pass defense, which could be a problem if DJ Lagway can find his rhythm with a new play-caller. But the safe pick here is to take the Bulldogs to win and cover. They’re the better team with much more to play for. … Georgia 31, Florida 21.
Crawford (Georgia -7.5): Weird line in this one. This probably speaks to the belief the Gators will be charged up for interim coach Billy Gonzales in a neutral environment against an arch rival. If you like Florida in this spot, take the Gators in the first half. All the emotions and sorts will wear off thereafter and the better team should take control. There’s not much Florida could do during its open week to alter a struggling offense, as Kirby Smart has noted. Take heed. … Georgia 31, Florida 14.
No. 23 USC -6.5 at Nebraska
Hummer (Nebraska +6.5): This is a fun, playoff elimination game in early November between two proud programs. Nebraska’s pass defense is one of the best in the FBS, ranking fourth nationally in opposing passer rating. USC, for its part, leads the FBS in passing yards per game. This is strength on strength. To me, this game will come down to Dylan Raiola. He’s done a really good job this year of playing largely mistake-free football. But Nebraska is going to have to SCORE to keep up with USC. Can the Huskers put up enough points? On a cold Saturday night in Lincoln, I think the Huskers do at least enough to cover. … USC 31, Nebraska 28.
Crawford (USC -6.5): Count me out as a Nebraska believer. I thought this team had a shot to win 10 games this season under Matt Rhule, but that road loss to Minnesota a few weeks ago was revealed. It was sandwiched between one-possession wins over Maryland and Northwestern for a team that seems to be just getting by during Big Ten play. USC is explosive and should deliver unless giveaways happen on the road. … USC 24, Nebraska 17.
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State -20.5
Hummer (Penn State +20.5): It’s almost too bad what happened to Penn State this season, because this game was supposed to be a banger. As it is, this is a matchup of the best team in the country and a PSU team that’s floundering with four straight losses. This matchup will go one of two ways: 1. The Buckeyes race ahead early and blow out the Nittany Lions. 2. Penn State makes it uncomfortably close. I think the value is with PSU. The Nittany Lions defense remains formattable and if PSU can shorten the game by running the ball, it can stay close enough. … Ohio State 31, Penn State 14.
Crawford (Ohio State -20.5): Arvell Reese and this Ohio State defense should make quick work of the Nittany Lions unless Kaytron Allen has a big day on the ground like he did last time out against Iowa. Ryan Day has never lost to Penn State and it’s not happening this weekend either for his top-ranked football team. … Ohio State 34, Penn State 7.
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas -2.5
Hummer (Vanderbilt +2.5): Despite all its issues this season, Texas should win this game. The Longhorns are the more talented team, and they may have found something in the fourth quarter against Mississippi State. But I still think Vanderbilt is the better team in 2025. The Commodores play mistake free, efficient football. Texas, for its part, is an inefficient offense that’s been occasionally vulnerable against the pass on defense. Vanderbilt has the kind of pass rush (21st nationally in pressure rate) that can bother Texas and will shorten the game in a way that Texas’ ultra inconsistent offense will be forced to take advantage of every possession. The Commodores get it done on the road. … Vanderbilt 21, Texas 20.
Crawford (Texas-2.5): The Longhorns this weekend could be without Arch Manning, who’s in concussion protocol following his comeback effort at Mississippi State. And as inconsistent as Texas has been offensively sans that fourth-quarter charge, this team still controls its playoff destiny in the SEC. That starts with a win over Vanderbilt, who’s beaten consecutive top-25 teams, but now must do it on the road. … Texas 20, Vanderbilt 17.
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee -3.5
Hummer (Tennessee -3.5): This is an interesting matchup of teams that are the inverse of each other. The Vols have an elite offense and a suspect defense. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is an elite defensive unit with an offense that sputters when John Mateer can’t create offense on his own. So, who has the advantage? The tie usually goes to great offense in my head, especially at the tempo the Vols play. They’re going to keep Oklahoma’s defense on the field for a lot of snaps, especially if the Sooners go three-and-out on a few occasions, which they do 30% of the time. Maybe the Vols turn the ball over a few times and OU manages to score enough. But give me Tennessee to win and cover at home. … Tennessee 34, Oklahoma 30.
Crawford (Tennessee -3.5): The Vols are going “Night Mode” against the Sooners Saturday evening at Neyland Stadium, which should make for a spectacle of sorts in terms of atmosphere. Tennessee’s been nearly unbeatable in Knoxville under Josh Heupel and should’ve beaten Georgia there earlier this fall. Oklahoma’s defense took a step back against Ole Miss and that continues against the Vols during a multi-touchdown effort from Joey Aguilar. … Tennessee 34, Oklahoma 20.