When playoff time rolls around and the regular season moves farther back into the rearview, the things we know about players and teams become true only insofar as they happen now. Whether a player thrives or fails in a playoff season becomes a key part of the narrative that shapes their value and status in the NHL. Fair or not, the playoffs are the microscope through which a player’s real value is examined.
Through the first four games of the Minnesota Wild’s first-round playoff series against the Dallas Stars, Kirill Kaprizov’s value has crystallized even further, as the superstar forward has been quietly dominant in nearly every aspect.
The abundance of highlight-reel moments that fans have become accustomed to seeing from Kaprizov haven’t been as frequent as at other times, but they’ve been there. There was the ridiculous sharp-angle snipe in Game 1, in which the puck whipped off his stick with velocity from a startlingly quick release.
And there was the all-world one-touch, cross-ice stretch pass from his own zone that sprung Ryan Hartman for a breakaway, and was reminiscent of the jaw-dropping pass he made to Matt Boldy against the Vegas Golden Knights in last year’s playoffs.
Beyond the highlights, there are the statistics. The Wild’s struggles on the power play through four games have been well-documented, and Kaprizov shoulders his share of the responsibility for that. But other than that, the superstar is having a phenomenal series.
The numbers don’t lie. He leads the team with six points (one goal, five assists), and the Wild have been flat-out dominating the Stars at even strength when Kaprizov is on the ice:
They have outscored Dallas 7-0 at even strength when Kaprizov is on the ice, and 9-1 in all situations, with the only goal against being a Dallas empty-netter late in Game 2.
In Kaprizov’s even-strength minutes, the Wild lead the Stars in high-danger scoring chances 19-7, while Dallas has a 29-15 advantage when Kaprizov is on the bench.
Minnesota has 68.47% of expected goals at even strength with Kaprizov, compared to 52.37% overall.
The Wild lead Dallas 47-36 in even-strength scoring chances with Kaprizov, and trail 58-27 without him.
Minnesota has scored 5 goals from high-danger areas, 4 of which have come with Kaprizov on the ice.
* Stats via NaturalStatTrick
Kaprizov has quietly dominated Dallas, and it’s come from his consistent two-way influence on the play. When Kaprizov is on the ice, the Wild have the puck more often and are getting scoring chances from dangerous areas, and the Stars aren’t. The Wild are scoring goals, and Dallas isn’t.
It doesn’t matter who Kaprizov is playing with; his numbers are dominant regardless. Almost every single Wild player has a better expected goal percentage with Kaprizov than without. Even more telling is that Kaprizov has much better numbers without any of those players than they do without him. Look at the numbers for every player that’s played at least 10 even-strength minutes both with and without Kaprizov this series:
* Stats via NaturalStatTrick
Those are the types of numbers that superstars create when they’re influencing the game in all three zones. They can dominate no matter who they’re on the ice with, and everyone they play with benefits. That’s been the case with Kaprizov for much of his career, and it’s certainly been the case here. He’s carrying a lot of weight for the Wild.
It’s also been consistent. Kaprizov’s numbers have been solid almost across the board in each game this series. As shown earlier, his possession numbers and the Wild’s actual results have been dominant when he’s on the ice.
* Stats via NaturalStatTrick
Even in Game 3, which was the Wild’s worst game of the series from a statistical perspective, Kaprizov still won his minutes by a wide margin.
Game 4 was a masterpiece. Kaprizov absolutely dominated in his ice time and turned in quality shift after quality shift. He was winning puck battles, carrying the puck up ice with his skating or through intelligent passing, and his movement was exceptional.
It was Kaprizov’s zone entry, movement, and passing that set the stage for Brock Faber’s first-period goal. He won a puck battle on the wall and funneled it up to Faber at the point.
Kaprizov was moving all over the ice the entire game, dancing with and without the puck to find space and create plays. He was facilitating offense from the half wall and dicing through Dallas’ defense with cross-seam passes, then moving into space to become an option or draw a defender to him.
In overtime, he made an incredible seeing-eye pass across the slot to find Matt Boldy on the back door for a chance that just didn’t go.
And then, on Boldy’s game-winning goal on a high-skill deflection, Kaprizov created the zone entry with a smart cross-ice dump for a streaking Boldy. He then gathered a loose puck created by Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek in the corner, and feathered a saucer pass through a defender and right onto the stick of a waiting Jared Spurgeon at the point, setting up the shot that Boldy tipped home.
So far, the heavyweight first-round series between the Wild and Stars has been everything it was billed to be in the months leading up to the inevitable matchup, and is sure to offer plenty more drama in what seems destined to be a seven-game classic.
In a high-stakes, high-intensity clash like this one, teams hope that their best players are their best players, and that’s been the case so far for the Wild, who have been powered by Kaprizov’s rock-solid performance.
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