Evangeline Demeterio of the Philippines (right) receives her citizenship at a naturalization ceremony in Dallas in 2022. Texas’ population grew about 1.25% through the year that ended in June 2025. International immigration was the largest contributor to that growth.
Allison Slomowitz/Special Contributor
Texas’ population grew more than most other states in 2025 as growth has generally slowed across the United States.
A report by the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings measured population growth from June 2024 to June 2025 and showed a significant slowdown across the country. However, there is good news for Texas, said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economics at Fitch.
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“When you’re thinking about the states that have really, really favorable demographic trends, any single time I’m asked to name the top three or four. Texas is always going to be in there,” Sonola said.
The population of Texas grew by 1.25%, the fourth largest percentage increase in the U.S, according to the report released Monday by Fitch. The state has had a population growth rate above 1% for the past five years, something that only four other states can claim.
Texas is largely bucking the larger trend of slowing population growth, but the threat of the broader U.S. population decreasing is still looming. Additionally, Texas’ domestic migration and international immigration rate declined from 2024.
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The U.S. is set to experience population stagnation beginning in 2048 — meaning that the population could start to decrease that year — based on U.S. census projections. Meanwhile, the natural population will dip into the negative in 2030, meaning more people will be dying than being born, Sonola said.
Muted international immigration and more people dying than being born in the U.S. will lead to the future population decline, according to the report.
Immigration changes
International immigration in the U.S. hit a peak in 2024 before falling in 2025, according to Fitch.
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Strict immigration policies, like closing the southern border, have been key points of President Donald Trump’s second term and have impacted the immigration rate.
International immigration declined across all states, but it was still the largest contributor to population growth for most states, including Texas, according to Fitch. Texas had a population increase of about 0.5% due to international immigration, down from nearly 1.2% in 2024.
The percentage of people within the U.S. that chose to move in Texas was behind the five-year average, at about 0.2%. Meanwhile, the natural population growth rate was about 0.5%.
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Influencing the birth and death rate from a policy perspective is difficult, but the immigration rate can change quickly, Sonola said.
“You never really know how the immigration policy will change because it’s so political,” Sonola said. “Now, the domestic side of things, from a policy side, states have a lot to do that.”
Sonola said states have been able to attract people by arguing that living there is affordable or business friendly. States have their own competitive advantages to attract people.
International immigration has been a driving force behind the growth of the U.S. labor force since the pandemic, according to the report. In 2026, Fitch is projecting a slowdown of about 0.3% year-over-year in labor force growth.
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Texas added nearly 47,000 nonfarm jobs in March, supported by gains in mining and logging and the professional and business sector. The gains are slightly shy of the full-year 2026 growth rate economists have been projecting for the state.
Texas had stronger labor force metrics than most other states in the report as states with higher population growth had high labor force growth. Texas had a labor force growth of about 14% since 2020, according to Fitch.
Texas has traditionally shown leadership in its labor force growth, said Sarah Repucci, a senior director at Fitch.
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“They are one of the states that have the strongest labor force growth of any of the states, and that was true even in the year over year change,” Repucci said.
Impact of aging
As fewer people are born and fewer people immigrate to the U.S., the nation’s population will get proportionally older. An aging population presents challenges for colleges, schools and hospitals, according to the report.
A proportionally older population would mean there are fewer school-aged and college-aged people. Fitch said a number of smaller colleges in the Midwest and Northeast have a negative outlook because of demographic pressures.
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Repucci said the problem hasn’t really reached Texas. About 7% of the population in Texas is college-aged, largely unchanged over the past five years, according to the report.
School districts have experienced enrollment and attendance declines, due to demographic trends, immigration policies and school choice options, according to the report.
An aging population is a problem for hospitals because a greater percentage of the population will require care and use services.
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However, Texas is in a better position than many other states. The state had the second lowest population of baby boomers of any U.S. state, at about 17%. Only Utah had a lower percentage.
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Texas has a strong growth rate and demographic factors, but it shouldn’t be taken for granted. The state’s birth rate is in the positive territory, but it didn’t have the domestic migration rate it had had in past years, Repucci said.
“Assuming it continues to be one of the stronger states, yes it’ll probably do better relative to other states, let’s say like New York,” Repucci said. “But I don’t think that these growth trajectories are guaranteed.”