It wasn’t Texas State’s (38-20, 16-8 in conference) best regular season, as it finished third in the Sun Belt. But coach Ricci Woodard scheduled tough nonconference opponents and her belief paid off. Wins over Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Clemson have bolstered Texas State’s résumé, which should be enough to earn them a spot in a regional.
The 2026 NCAA DI softball selection show will begin at 6 p.m. CT. Here are the Bobcats’ odds to make the tournament.
Texas State is ranked 31st in RPI, which is calculated using a team’s winning percentage, its opponent’s winning percentage and its opponent’s opponents’ winning percentage. Considering Texas State’s ranking and its second-place finish in the Sun Belt tournament, it’ll likely earn one of the 33 available at-large bids.
So, where could the Bobcats end up? In 2023, Texas State (35-25-1) ended up in the Austin regional hosted by No. 13 Texas. As the third seed, Texas A&M eliminated them in the regional 4-2. The Bobcats (39-14) again landed the Austin regional in 2021, hosted by No. 12 Texas.
The 2024 Bobcats (47-15) were second in the Sun Belt and won the conference tournament. They earned a trip to College Station as the second seed in the region. Although it defeated Penn State, Texas State fell to Texas A&M twice, failing to make the super regionals.
Texas State has left the state twice for a regional, in 2016 and 2018, but it seems more likely it’ll stay in the Lone Star State. With the Aggies currently outside the top 16 of RPI rankings and the Longhorns fourth, a visit to Lubbock could be in the Bobcats’ future.
The Red Raiders are 13th in RPI, putting them in position to be a potential regional host. Texas State defeated Texas Tech 3-0 in April, its highest-ranking win in program history. Considering the Bobcats’ history with the NCAA Tournament, they’re unlikely to be grouped with a top-eight seed. If it were to venture outside the state, Georgia, Duke, LSU, or Oregon could be regional hosts.