Texas school districts are facing a statewide enrollment decline that could deepen in the years ahead, lawmakers were told during a hearing in Austin on Monday.

The warning comes as districts across North Texas — including Fort Worth, Richardson, Coppell and Grand Prairie — have shuttered schools or seriously discussed closures while grappling with shrinking class sizes.

Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath told legislators the state lost 75,000 students in one year.

“We cannot tell you the precise cause of this,” Morath said.

Bob Templeton with Strive Public Policy said the decline is not expected to stop soon.

“This is not another blip or one-off. This is an inflection point, and it is the start of sustained enrollment decline,” Templeton said.

Templeton said the state could lose another 120,000 students next year and 400,000 students four to five years from now.

He pointed to declining birth rates and an increase in families choosing homeschool or private school options. Some lawmakers questioned how vouchers could widen the gap.

Rep. Diego Bernal, D-San Antonio, said lawmakers should not ignore the state’s role in the trend.

“I’m not fighting what the science obviously tells us, but I also think it would be irresponsible for us to say, hey that’s not our problem, it’s just a global trend, when we’ve done something ourselves to accelerate that. I’m not sure what the answer is, but I just don’t think we can be uninvolved,” Bernal said.

Rep. Gina Hinojosa, D-Austin, asked whether the enrollment decline could affect the teacher retirement system.

“Have you looked at the impact that this decline will have on the viability of the teacher retirement system?” Hinojosa said.

“I have not, but it has crossed my mind as a concern,” Templeton said.

Templeton told lawmakers independent school districts will likely see revenue erosion, a concentration of high-need students and stress on the teacher market in the years ahead.

This story was originally reported for broadcast by NBC DFW. AI tools helped convert the story into a digital article, and an NBC DFW journalist edited it again before publication.