AUSTIN, Texas (KLTV) – There are roughly 76,000 less students enrolled in Texas public schools during the 2025-2026 school year compared to the prior school year, according to officials and education experts. It’s the first year in around four decades that Texas has seen a decline in total student enrollment, excluding the pandemic.
In total, around 5.5 million students are enrolled in Texas public schools. That number has remained relatively steady since 2019, excluding a dip during the 2020-2021 school year. However, despite the general state population growing, school enrollment is now decreasing.
During a Committee on Public Education meeting at the state capitol Monday, lawmakers heard invited and public testimony about the state of Texas’ education system. The nine hour long meeting covered academic outcomes, enrollment trends, finances, school safety, and the role of technology and artificial intelligence.
At the start of the meeting, Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath explained current enrollment across the state to lawmakers. He said that the drop in student enrollment was noticed at the beginning of the current school year.
“This is a trend that we heard from our superintendents, our large district superintendents the first few weeks of the school year this year,” Morath explained. “We cannot tell you the precise cause of this, we just know it has occurred.” Morath adds that this decline is, “somewhat more accelerated than statewide demographic trends indicated.”
While state agencies do not have an official answer to why this decline is happening, testimony during the meeting shared possibilities. That includes a lower birthrate, less immigration (both domestically and internationally), and increased immigration enforcement creating fears for some families.
Combined with the start of Texas Education Freedom Accounts, also known as school vouchers, causing more students to move from public schools to private schools, including thousands in East Texas, some education experts believe the drop will continue for several years.
Bob Templeton, who analyzes primary school demographics across Texas, predicted Monday that the 2026-2027 school year will see a larger drop than the current school year.
“This year’s drop of 76,000, if it repeats itself, plus we know there’s going to be the start of the voucher program that’s going to go into effect next year, I think at a minimum next year’s enrollment will likely be at least 120,000 students decrease,” explained Templeton. “It will likely be greater than that, so that’s a conservative estimate. That’s a hopeful estimate.”
Templeton adds that over the next several years, he predicts the decline will continue.
“I think our enrollment in our public schools could drop to near to five million students in four to five years,” Templeton predicted. “We could be literally seeing about 400,000 less kids in our traditional public schools within four to five years.”
Lawmakers at Monday’s committee meeting will consider what’s been shared ahead of the 90th Legislature, which begins at the start of next year.
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