Bryan Armetta shares his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 10’s game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Texas Longhorns.
Ranked SEC foes are set to clash in what could be a make-or-break game. #9 Vanderbilt is riding high following its 17-10 victory over Missouri. However, the one-loss Commodores have a long way to go before securing their first-ever College Football Playoff berth.
Their opponents on Saturday, #20 Texas, have plenty to prove. Still, even with two losses, the Longhorns can still salvage their season. What should bettors expect in Austin this weekend? Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 10’s game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Texas Longhorns.
Texas enters this contest as 2.5-point favorites (-115) over Vanderbilt, with the over/under set at 44.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Longhorns are favored at -148 on the moneyline.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction, preview
To the surprise of many, Texas enters as the favorites. UT has fallen well short of expectations, especially on offense. Hyped quarterback Arch Manning has looked pedestrian for most of the season. Through eight games, the sophomore has thrown for 1,795 yards and 15 touchdowns while coughing up six interceptions. Those aren’t bad numbers per se, but they aren’t anything close to Heisman-caliber. Subpar performances, such as a 132-yard showing vs. Kentucky, have been common.
With that being said, Arch delivered arguably his most impressive collegiate outing last week vs. Mississippi State. The 21-year-old threw for 346 yards and tallied four total touchdowns, leading the Longhorns to a second-half comeback. That’s the kind of effort Texas needs going forward, especially against Saturday’s opponent. Vanderbilt’s defense has been a terror all season. The Commodores rank inside the SEC’s top six in tackles for loss (54), points per game (18.8), and rushing yards per game (101.9). Vandy’s biggest weakness? The secondary, allowing 6.7 yards per pass attempt. That’s the conference’s seventh-worst mark.
In spite of scoring struggles, Texas has still managed to win six games. That’s due to a smothering defense, among the nation’s best. UT has been especially dominant up front, absolutely destroying opposing run games. The Longhorns have held opponents to an SEC-best 2.4 yards per rush and 80.8 rushing yards per game. Their ability to make offenses one-dimensional is invaluable, especially in a must-win spot.
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has been a game-wrecker all season. Over eight games, he’s thrown for 1,698 yards, ran for 458 more, and accumulated 20 total touchdowns. The dual-threat’s scrambling makes him one of the sport’s more difficult assignments. Still, as previously mentioned, Texas’ defense excels at stopping the run game. Keeping that in mind, expect plenty of involvement from tight end Eli Stowers. He leads the Commodores in catches (31) and receiving yards (397) while notching two touchdowns.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas pick, best bet
I truly believe Vanderbilt is the better team in this contest. After all, the school has better wins, fewer losses, and arguably a better head coach than Texas. However, this is a terrible matchup for the Commodores. UT’s stifling defense prioritizes stopping the run at all costs. In comparison, Pavia is at his best outside of the pocket. At home, I’ll give a slight lean towards the talented Longhorns.