AUSTIN (Nexstar) — Texans can now cast their votes for the primary runoffs across the state — including in a high-profile Republican race for U.S. Senate between incumbent John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The early voting window runs between May 18 through May 22, with the election taking place on May 26.
Monday has been marked on the calendars of Cornyn and Paxton for a long time. Possibly not when Paxton officially announced his long-anticipated campaign in April 2025, but certainly after U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, R-Texas, joined the race.
Throughout his run, Cornyn’s pitch to Texas Republicans has been remarkably consistent.
“Ken Paxton could well lose to [Democratic nominee State Rep.] James Talarico because he’s got so much baggage,” Cornyn said to reporters after voting in Austin on Monday morning.
Paxton, instead, has been focusing on Cornyn’s sparse disagreements with U.S. President Donald Trump.
“He’s really failed us and he’s failed the country because we’re sacrificing those resources that could have gone to elect Republicans,” Paxton told Nexstar in April. Prior to the runoff starting, the race was already the most expensive U.S. Senate primary ever. “Instead they’re spending it on me.”
‘We can’t just win elections with Republican votes’
In the Democratic primary between Talarico and U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, one word became key — electability. Cornyn is trying to paint a similar story.
“We know we can’t just win elections with Republican votes. You need Independents and the occasional convert from the other party and Ken Paxton will get none of those,” he says. “I’ve spent most of my adult lifetime… trying to build the Republican party in Texas. We haven’t elected a Democrat since 1994. But again, Ken Paxton puts all of that at risk.”
On Monday morning, a Texas Southern University (TSU) poll put his hypothesis to the test. It found Cornyn and Talarico tied at 45% each, with Talarico narrowly ahead of Paxton 45%-44%.
“There is a tiny bit of support for [Cornyn’s] theory, but overall whether it’s Paxton or Cornyn as the [Republican] nominee, we’re looking at a dead heat right now against James Talarico,” Mark P. Jones, a political science professor and pollster who worked on the TSU poll, said.
However, Jones says it’s too early for this poll to accurately test Cornyn’s theory.
“What you really can’t replicate with the survey today is the effect of $100 to $150 million of attack ads against either Paxton or Cornyn if they are the GOP nominee,” Jones said. “The fear that many in Washington have — as well as many in Texas have — is that if Paxton is the nominee, there’s so much material to work with. Whether it’s the serial adultery, the mortgage fraud, the securities fraud, the massive gain in net worth while in office (or) the retaliation against whistleblowers, the Democrats will be able to utilize that to weaken Paxton more than they would be able to use attack ads to weaken Cornyn.”
Cornyn highlighted all of those controversies in his primary campaign, yet still finds himself neck-and-neck race. Paxton says voters see through the attacks.
“It’s pathetic that that’s where he’s gone,” he told Nexstar in April. “He lacks the dignity of a U.S. Senator. This is another reason he should be replaced — he doesn’t want to talk about his accomplishments because there are none. And he doesn’t want to talk about what I’ve accomplished and so he makes it personal. Of course, he lies and I have no respect for the guy.”
Cornyn — who has spent most of his career as a reserved, mild-mannered candidate and politician — says “we just told the truth.”
“I can’t help Ken Paxton’s self-destructiveness,” he said. “He’s lied to Texas taxpayers. He’s lied to his own hand-picked senior staff who turned him into the FBI because he was interfering in a federal investigation against one of his campaign donors. He was impeached by a Republican-led house. And then he’s blown up his own family. I think the underlying message in all this is you can’t trust Ken Paxton any farther than you can see him.”
‘Both candidates are damaged’
Many Texas Republican leaders seem unconvinced that this contentious primary will weaken Republican’s chances of holding onto the Senate seat.
“Republicans — they’re going to unite,” Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, R-Texas, said after casting his ballot on Monday.
Jones says Talarico’s strong polling numbers are made possible due to the bruising Republican primary — citing TSU’s numbers which have Democratic nominee for Governor Gina Hinojosa and potential Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor Vikki Goodwin trailing their Republican opponents.
“Overall, Texas remains a red state where the Republican camps are favored statewide,” Jones said. “It’s only this very nasty, very expensive and very bloody Republican primary and the potential to have a damaged candidate emerge from it that has Republican worried about the November U.S. Senate race.”
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