President Donald Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican Senate runoff against Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May 26 election.

AUSTIN, Texas — Early voting continued on Wednesday in the high-stakes Texas Senate runoff election, which could have major implications in the fight for the U.S. Senate majority.

The reverberations are still being felt across the political world after Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton received President Donald Trump’s endorsement on Tuesday over Texas incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn.

In a social media post, the President called Paxton “tested” at difficult times and “a winner.”

“We have a great candidate, I believe, in Texas, and I believe the Texas candidate, who’s Ken Paxton, I think he’ll win,” President Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Wednesday. “I think probably he’ll win very substantially, and I think he’ll go on to defeat a very defective candidate.”

Trump said that Sen. Cornyn is a “good man,” but that he was “not supportive” during tough times. That appears to be a reference to the Spring of 2023 when Cornyn didn’t initially support the President’s 2024 campaign.

The endorsement dealt a massive blow to Cornyn, who finished narrowly ahead of Paxton in the GOP primary.

At a White House press briefing on Tuesday, Vice President JD Vance, who served two years with Cornyn in the U.S. Senate, said the endorsement of Paxton sent a message to elected officials who get “out of step with voters or out of step with the president.” He said, “That’s not a good place to be politically.” It was a warning shot, if you will, to those in Congress on the opposite end of Pennsylvania Avenue from the White House that the President won’t tolerate dissent. 

“I’ve known John Cornyn for a long time, but unfortunately, you know, when it really counted, Ken Paxton was there for the country, was there for the president, and that’s why he ultimately earned the president’s endorsement,” Vance said. “He thinks he’s going to be a better senator. He thinks he’s going to make a better candidate.”

Rice Political Science Professor Mark Jones said the President is frustrated by what is happening on Capitol Hill and is using the moment to send a message to congressional Republicans.

“One thing President Trump was doing was sending a signal to both those Senate Republicans who haven’t been 100% on board with him, as well as to Senator Cornyn and other Republicans, that he’s going to reward someone like Ken Paxton, who’s been with him through thick and thin, as opposed to someone like John Cornyn, who’s a more recent convert to the MAGA movement,” Jones said. 

Trump is on an election roll and feeling the momentum after successfully campaigning against and endorsing primary challengers to some Indiana State Senators who opposed redistricting, as well as two Republican lawmakers, U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy from Louisiana and Congressman Thomas Massie from Kentucky, who both lost their primary races.

News of the endorsement broke on Tuesday while Paxton was holding a campaign event in the Dallas area. Paxton said he’s “incredibly honored” to have Trump’s backing.

“His endorsement, in my opinion, is the most significant endorsement in my lifetime. So, when he endorses, it has a tremendous impact,” Paxton said. “I have so much respect for the President and so appreciate his endorsement, and I think it creates a slight bit of momentum. Don’t you?”

At a campaign event on Tuesday, Senator Cornyn emphasized his close relationship with Trump.

“I’m a Ronald Reagan Republican,” Cornyn said. “Ronald Reagan, you may recall, said, What do you call somebody who votes with me? 8 times out of 10, he said, I call him a friend and an ally, not a 20% traitor. Unfortunately, our politics have changed, but it’s within our power to change it back to a process where we work together in the best interests of our state and our nation.”

Cornyn said after the primary, the Republican party will unify, but he’s concerned about November.

It’s an argument he’s often made on the campaign trail. In November’s general election against the Democratic nominee, State Rep. James Talarico, he said Paxton will be “a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about.”

“You may have seen that he endorsed Ken Paxton in this race, and I think that will certainly have an impact, but we’re not giving up the fight,” Cornyn said. “I know who gets to choose our senators, and it’s the people of Texas, and there’s no substitute for that.”

The President held off on an endorsement during the primary, saying he “liked all three candidates.”

In a social media post the day after the primary, President Trump said he planned to make an endorsement “soon,” and he wanted the person he did not choose to drop out. He waited more than 2.5 months to make his endorsement. On Tuesday, Cornyn said he does not plan to drop out of the runoff election, which is less than a week away.

“Only Texans get to vote,” Cornyn said. “We’ve had 2 days of early voting. It looks very encouraging, and I believe that we still have a very good chance of winning in the race.”

Allies of both Cornyn and Paxton have spent several weeks making their case to the White House in hopes of earning the President’s approval.

Senate Republicans in Washington heavily pushed Trump to endorse Cornyn. 

“It’s an audacious move by President Trump. It’s one that’s clearly directed in a negative way towards Senate Majority Leader John Thune and many Senate Republicans,” Mark Jones said. “It’s also directed negatively towards the large number of Republicans here in Texas who supported Senator Cornyn, people such as Former Governor Rick Perry and a host of state representatives across the board.”

Senate Republicans argued Paxton is a potential liability in the general election and is too controversial to beat Talarico in November. He has been dogged by allegations of abusing his office, bribery, fraud and infidelity. It led to a 2023 impeachment trial where the Texas Senate acquitted him.

Cornyn’s campaign has not held back and has gone on offense in ads that highlight the ethical and personal accusations against Paxton, such as his alleged extramarital affairs. His wife, State Senator Angela Paxton, has filed for divorce on “biblical grounds,” including allegations of cheating.

On Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Capitol Hill that he is still backing Sen. Cornyn in his reelection bid, despite President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Paxton.

“Senator Cornyn is a principled conservative. He is a very effective senator for the state of Texas, but I don’t, none of us control what the President does. He made his decision about that. That doesn’t change the way I feel, and I am certainly supportive of, will continue to be supportive of Senator Cornyn in his reelection,” Thune said. “One state doesn’t determine the outcome of this election, but obviously we care about every state, and we care about helping see our incumbents succeed.”

Democrats are looking to win statewide office in Texas for the first time since 1994. Democrats are eyeing the Texas Senate seat. They will need it if they want to succeed in the uphill battle they face to capture a majority in the upper chamber. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said he is intrigued by Democrats’ chances in the Lone Star State if Paxton is the nominee, but said Democrats are going to win Texas, “whether it’s Cornyn or Paxton.”

“Texas is a huge mess for the Republicans, and I believe that we’re in much better shape taking back Texas than we were a few days ago, and I think we’re going to win Texas,” Schumer said.

Senate Republicans have argued that even if Paxton is successful and wins, it would require a significant investment of money to support Paxton and ensure he defeats Talarico, which they would not need to use for Cornyn. Those resources, they argue, could be better spent elsewhere in competitive races, such as Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, or on the offensive to flip seats in Georgia and Michigan. 

“The endorsement by President Trump, I think, definitely will help Paxton, and we’ll see what happens,” U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) said. “I think we’ll win Texas no matter what, but the truth of the matter is, probably with Paxton, it’s going to cost more money. At the end of the day, President Trump’s got the most powerful endorsement in modern American politics, and when he gives it, it matters.”

Paxton has $2.3 million in cash to spend, Cornyn has $4.1 million and Talarico has a war chest of $9.8 million.

“At the end of the day, Senate Republicans are concerned about maintaining control of the Senate. They’re going to hold their nose in spite of what they view as a really noxious stench and support Ken Paxton, but it’s going to take a lot of super PAC money coming in,” Jones said. “I think there’s going to be an argument among many Republicans to the Trump-aligned super PAC saying, you guys stuck us with Ken Paxton as our nominee, you guys need to dig us out of this hole by spending the tens of millions that need to be spent to defeat James Talarico.”

President Trump revealed his plans to release his endorsement on Tuesday morning while speaking to reporters about the construction of the new White House ballroom. Afterward, the Wall Street Journal reported there was a scramble, and Senator Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) called the President to try to convince him to back Cornyn.

According to the Wall Street Journal, up until that point, Senate Republicans believed that Trump would not endorse a candidate in the race. At his weekly press conference on Tuesday, Thune said he found out “like everyone else,” and President Trump did give him a heads-up. AG Paxton did get a heads-up and spoke to Trump by phone ahead of the announcement.

“As it emerged on Tuesday, there was still some belief that he might endorse Cornyn rather than Paxton, because if Trump would just remain neutral, then the rancor and ill will within the Republican Senate caucus in DC would have been much weaker and lower than it is now, because at that point, Trump could have made the case of, hey, I remain neutral and let them play it out on an even playing field and if Paxton won, Paxton won, and if Cornyn won. Cornyn won,” Jones said. “Now Senate Republicans are seeing that Trump is putting his thumb on the scale in favor of Ken Paxton and against their longtime friend and ally, John Cornyn. That’s only going to create ill will within the Republican Senate caucus. And it’s going to make it all the more difficult for President Trump to pass his key legislation between now and the end of the year.”

United States Senator Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), who is retiring and is not seeking reelection, called Trump’s endorsement of Paxton “disappointing” but said it was “not at all surprising.”

“”The reality is I think that my colleagues are never going to stand in the way of good policy, but it’s probably going to increase the threshold for anything that’s the least bit questionable and at the end of the day, I think that’s good for the president and it’s good for the Republican brand because we’re hitting some headwinds now and we can’t let people in the White House who are advising the president advise him on things that make it even more difficult for my colleagues to come back in majorities,” Tillis said.

While Senator Cornyn has backed Trump’s agenda in Washington and was even the Senate whip for the first two years of his first term, responsible for ensuring there were enough Senate Republicans to pass the President’s priorities, it was not enough. The President was not convinced by Cornyn and other Senate Republicans who argued that come November, the Senior Senator from Texas was a safer bet. Some GOP strategists have expressed concern that Paxton is a flawed candidate. 

“There could also be collateral damage down ballot as a result of Paxton being at the top of the ticket. So people running for U.S. House seats in pink or white, blue or purple districts may lose when they might have otherwise won,” Jones said. “Many Texas House seats are set up in such a way that they’re pretty much impregnable, with a few exceptions to a small blue wave, but if there’s a large blue wave, we start to get into the realm of Democrats potentially taking back control of the Texas House or reducing the Republican majority to somewhere in the 70s, which would require Speaker Dustin Burrows to operate with much narrower margins assuming he returns to take the reins of the Texas House.”

Jones said there is a huge pile of dirty laundry that Democrats can use to attack him.

“For some voters, the serial adulterer will be a problem. For others, the mortgage and securities fraud will be a problem. For others, the massive increase in net worth while in public office will be a problem. For others, the retaliation against whistleblowers will be a problem. For others, the support for January 6th will be a problem. For others, they’ll find it odd that he stole a pen in the Collin County Courthouse,” Jones said.  There are so many things that Democrats can use against Ken Paxton in November that we aren’t going to be able to measure the full effect of that $100 to $150 million on attack ads until we hit October.”

For his part, Paxton has always denied any wrongdoing and called the accusations of illegal or immoral behavior against him attacks by left-wing enemies.

To illustrate the challenge if Paxton is the nominee, Jones used the gubernatorial election, where incumbent Republican Greg Abbott is facing Democrat State Rep. Gina Hinojosa. He said the dilemma for Republicans is whether they can get all the Abbott voters to also vote for Ken Paxton, or whether some will vote for James Talarico, abstain, or vote for Libertarian Ted Brown.

“Conversely, for Democrats, can they get a significant share?” Jones said. “It doesn’t have to be a lot, maybe 10% of the Abbott voters to either vote for Talarico or abstain or vote for Ted Brown, and that’s really where this election will be fought out.”

While Jones said Gov. Abbott will probably win, it may not be by the kind of margins he’s won in past elections, so Republicans will need to retain as much of the Abbott vote for Paxton as they can. 

“I think the general belief is that it would have been much easier to retain the Abbott, though, if John Cornyn was the nominee rather than Ken Paxton, because at the end of the day, you can attack Cornyn for being conservative and a Republican, but you don’t have the whole host of other ethical, legal, moral, philosophical or financial issues that you have with Ken Paxton,” Jones said.

When asked about the endorsement at an event in Houston on Tuesday, Republican Gov. Abbott said either man could beat State Rep. Talarico, the Democrats’ nominee.

“It doesn’t matter who’s going to win that primary,” Abbott said. “They’re gonna win in November because the fact of the matter is the contrast between whoever wins that primary and Representative Talarico is night and day.”

Back in March, Trump was reportedly set to endorse Cornyn, and then Paxton made a risky play. Paxton said he would consider dropping out of this race if Senate Leadership dropped the filibuster and passed the “SAVE America Act.”

The bill, backed by President Trump, imposes strict voter ID requirements. Supporters said it protects elections from non-citizen voting, while critics argue it restricts voting access and could discourage people from voting. It’s currently stalled in the Senate. Paxton attacked Cornyn for not doing enough to pass the legislation, which is a priority for Trump.

Cornyn, a co-sponsor, has said he supports the SAVE Act and wants it to pass. Cornyn said he would be willing to eliminate the Senate filibuster to pass the voting restrictions bill as he courted the President’s support in his grueling reelection battle. It was a reversal of a year-long position that Cornyn has steadfastly held.

“I think that was probably one of the successes that the Paxton camp had, was convincing President Trump that Ken Paxton was likely to win without his endorsement, but if the president wanted to be able to count Paxton in his, essentially, pantheon of successes, he should endorse him today rather than wait and see the results,” Jones said.

Political analysts predict Paxton would do better in the runoff because the electorate tends to be smaller and favors the more conservative candidate. 

Jones said the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs found more than three-quarters of Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of President Trump, and the majority of them would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate over someone whom Trump does not endorse.

“I think this is one of those things that pushes Paxton over the edge and makes it very difficult for Senator Cornyn to make up that ground between now and Tuesday. “Trump’s endorsement and support as we approach November,” Jones said. “Trump right now is underwater with Texas November voters, and he’s going to be more of a liability than an asset for Texas Republicans as we approach November. While Republicans need his support to ensure that Donald Trump’s backers actually turn out to vote in November, that’s a double-edged sword because the more a Republican candidate is identified with President Trump, the more difficult a time they’re going to have convincing independents, moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats to vote for them.”

Early voting runs through Friday. Election Day is on Tuesday, May 26, the day after Memorial Day.