Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Houston Rockets vs. Boston Celtics matchup on Saturday night as part of the six-game NBA slate.
On Saturday evening, the Houston Rockets battle the Boston Celtics in an inter-conference clash in New England. Through the first few games of the season, both sides are .500 as these teams find themselves in drastically different positions moving forward.
Here’s a Rockets vs. Celtics prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s matchup.
Rockets vs. Celtics prediction, preview
The Rockets enter the weekend 2-2 with adaptation the focus moving forward. This team added Kevin Durant over the offseason and he’s certainly performed up to expectations through his first games in red with 27.5 PPG while shooting an efficient 52.2% from the field. Adding any superstar into the mix brings a slight learning curve, but Ime Udoka is left working out more changes to the offense with Fred VanVleet sidelined indefinitely with an ACL tear. The absence of the floor general leaves Houston running more offense through Alperen Sengun, who averages 23.8 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists. That pair is complemented by Amen Thompson (14.5 PTS, 5.2 REB, 5.3 AST) as a formidable top three along with high-level role players throughout the rotation.
The Celtics are 3-3 and have showed surprising ability to scrap it out despite the absence of Jayson Tatum (Achilles), Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, the latter two of whom were key parts of the 2024 title team but were traded this offseason. Jaylen Brown has carried the team in the meantime with 27.7 PPG, though a handful of guards like Derrick White, Anfernee Simons and Payton Pritchard all average between 14.7 and 16.7 PPG with a handful of assists. Small lineups will reign supreme this season, though Neemias Queta anchors things at the five with 8.2 boards a night. Sam Hauser is also an unheralded hero with 11.2 PPG while shooting 43.8% from three-point range. Overall, this roster is held together by the power of friendship in this retooling year without Tatum around, though his return timeline will loom in headlines throughout.
As for the team stats, the Rockets average an NBA-best 127.8 PPG with top-10 efficiency marks across the board. They’re also eighth in rebounding and steals, though the defense hasn’t yet matched last year’s play as a grinding unit at 20th in DEFRTG. The Celtics are 25th in scoring with 113.3 PPG, but they’re 25th in shooting percentage from both the field and from three. Boston also ranks 16th in rebounding and second-to-last in assists, but they’re producing the fifth-most blocks per game to this point. Where the offense may struggle, the defense has made up for it with just 107.3 PPG allowed to opponents, second-bets in the league.
Rockets vs. Celtics pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rockets enter as -5.5 favorites with -205 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Celtics come in at +170 underdogs to win outright with a game total of 225.5 points.
The key to this game will be the size difference between these rosters. Houston has the players to deploy a jumbo lineup with the 6-foot-7 Thompson as the shortest man in the lineup with multiple big men on the floor, which will certainly provide an edge where rebounding is concerned. The Rockets also have plenty of high-level defenders like Thompson, Tari Eason and more, but what will prove interesting is whether the smaller lineups Boston may use can take advantage of their opponents’ size. If Sengun and Steven Adams share the floor, speed and shooting on the perimeter become the name of the game for Boston and could see opportunities to take advantage of a lack of defense further out from the paint.
This could create a bit of a chess match between Udoka and Joe Mazzulla, but either way, the total feels a little too low for this one. Both sides can take advantage of matchups to pour in points, so over 225.5 makes some sense tonight.