Summer is arriving in style across much of Texas this week, with high temperatures staying still in the low to mid 90s, and even some spots of the state seeing 100 degrees on thermometer readings. But with summer’s arrival, does that mean increased thunderstorms? For some parts of the Lone Star State, that is certainly possible.
A system could develop in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles on Monday, bringing real chaos if the worst possible outcome hits.
The National Weather Service out of Amarillo says if there’s instability up in the atmosphere over the combined Oklahoma and Texas panhandles on Monday, it could lead to some thunderstorms. While current chances are at about 15-20 percent for rain Monday, any storms would likely come around 3 p.m. Monday.
“Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazard for any storm that can become severe in our area,” wrote the NWS in its forecast early Sunday morning. Potential hazards include ping-pong-ball-sized hail (that’s about 1.5 inches in diameter), 65 mph wind gusts and a “very low” risk of tornado formation.
It should remain hot up there regardless, with high temperatures surging past 90 degrees. Some areas may even see triple digits.
Rainfall chances remain slimmer still to the south. Forecasters in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex said Sunday there could be showers Monday, but don’t expect them; instead, Tuesday remains a better bet for scattered storms, especially in the afternoon, as a low pressure system begins to make waves from the west.
“As low and mid level flow becomes more easterly, better moisture will be able to work into the region and we could see a few scattered storms mainly in our southeast counties Tuesday afternoon,” wrote the NWS in its forecast. Highs should remain in the low to mid 90s for much of the week.
It’s much of the same in the Central Texas region, with forecasters there expecting hot and muggy conditions through Monday. Things could change a bit on Tuesday as that low atmospheric pressure arrives.
“Locally heavy rainfall is possible at times, but widespread flooding concerns are low,” wrote the NWS in its forecast Sunday. “Temperatures remain on the warmer end, but actually not particularly hot for early June.” Those high temperatures will be in the low 90s across Austin and San Antonio.
Down in Houston, there should be a chance of thunderstorms every day this week, increasing in probability as we get closer to the weekend. But more, the focus is on continued warm weather throughout Southeast Texas.
“High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s (with isolated spots reaching the mid-90s),” wrote the NWS in its forecast Sunday, “and afternoon heat indices climbing to near 100. Overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s.”
Houston’s rain chances are coming from the Gulf on Monday, with storms more likely around the coast, and from the northeast on Tuesday, “which could help initiate activity across much of the region—if it is able to push into the region,” continued the NWS. So don’t necessarily plan on rain early this week, but it could happen.