The West Virginia Mountaineers (2-6, 0-5 Big 12) and No. 22 Houston Cougars (7-1, 4-1) meet Saturday at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the West Virginia vs. Houston odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

West Virginia’s losing streak hit 5 games Oct. 25 after a 23-17 setback against the TCU Horned Frogs. The Mountaineers did manage to cover as 16.5-point home underdogs as the Under (55) cashed. Their ground game struggled, finishing with just 41 rushing yards. QB Scotty Fox Jr. carried the offense, throwing for 301 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss.

Houston made it 3 straight wins Oct. 25 with a 24-16 upset over Arizona State, cashing as 7.5-point road underdogs with the Under (46.5) hitting. QB Conner Weigman threw for 201 yards and a touchdown — 100 of those yards and the score going to TE Tanner Koziol. Weigman also added 111 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in the victory.

The last meeting between Houston and Arizona State came Oct. 12, 2023, in Houston, where the Cougars pulled off a 41-39 shootout victory as 2.5-point home underdogs as the Over (49.5) hit.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

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Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:49 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): West Virginia +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Houston -550 (bet $550 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): West Virginia +13.5 (-115) | Houston -13.5 (-105)Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)West Virginia at Houston picks and predictionsPrediction

Houston 28, West Virginia 7

PASS.

The Cougars (-550) will win Saturday, but I can’t bet over 5 units to win 1.

BET HOUSTON -13.5 (-105).

Houston looks like the clear side to back here. West Virginia has been decimated by injuries, losing both RB Jahiem White and RB Tye Edwards — the core of its ground-heavy offense — and replacement RB Diore Hubbard hasn’t found much traction, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. The Mountaineers’ offense has completely sputtered, scoring more than 17 points only once in conference play, while the defense has struggled to keep them competitive.

Meanwhile, Houston’s rolling — winners of 3 straight, both outright and ATS. Weigman and Koziol have developed strong chemistry, giving the Cougars a balanced attack that can test defenses vertically and on the ground. Houston’s defense has been quietly dominant too, holding opponents to limited yardage and forcing turnovers at key moments.

West Virginia’s turnover issues, combined with an anemic offense and a defense giving up 31+ points per game, make it hard to see it staying close. The Cougars are at home, in form, and have covered 6 of their last 8 games. With Houston averaging a double-digit scoring margin this season and West Virginia reeling from 5 straight losses, this feels like a comfortable spot for the Cougars to handle business.

BET UNDER 48.5 (-115).

Houston’s defense has been one of the most dependable in the Big 12, allowing under 19 points per game, while the Mountaineers’ offense has been stuck in neutral — failing to score more than 17 points in 5 games this season.

West Virginia’s best bet is to slow the pace with the run game. Houston isn’t built to run up the score, leaning on sustained drives rather than quick strikes.

With both teams favoring ball control and Houston’s defense capable of dictating tempo, this matchup shapes up as a low-scoring grind.

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