Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for NFL Week 9’s game between the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos on Sunday.

The NFL regular season reaches the halfway point on Sunday and teams’ identities are largely set in stone. No franchises hang their hat more on defense than these two, so fans who love low-scoring slugfests are in for an absolute treat this week as the Houston Texans head to the Mile High City to scrap with the Denver Broncos. Points may prove hard to come by, but entertainment certainly will not.

Here’s a Texans vs. Broncos prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 9.

Texans vs. Broncos prediction, preview

Houston Texans

My goodness, what a frustrating campaign it’s been for the Houston Texans. This team entered the season on the heels of two straight AFC South titles with an imposing defense and an offense positioned for a rebound with Nick Caley as the offensive coordinator and a handful of new pieces around C.J. Stroud. After dropping the first three games, the Texans have now gone 3-1 since, though each win came over teams with some real red flags. Now, this week presents the toughest test yet for an offense that averages just 21.9 points and 328.7 yards per game, 19th and 17th in the league. Stroud has looked more like his rookie-year self as of late but will face constant pressure behind a porous offensive line, though he’ll certainly be glad to get Nico Collins back from concussion protocol. The Texans have also involved rookie wideouts Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins slightly more recently, so their snap shares are worth monitoring this week as well.

Houston largely ranks middle-of-the-pack in most offensive team stats (17th in rushing yards/game, 16th in passing yards/game) with an uninspiring attack, but the defense does truly shine. The Texans are first in opponent points and yards allowed with just 14.7 and 266.9, and they’re top-five against both the run and the pass. They lean a little zone-heavy with a fearsome pass rush that generates plenty of pressure but comes in at 17th in sack percentage, though they create big plays with 1.6 takeaways per contest, third-most.

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are surely used to the altitude of their stadium, so they always have a slight advantage in that regard when playing at home. They’re 6-2 on the year despite some flaws and ride a five-game winning streak into this contest while refusing to die in some dire situations along the way. Bo Nix’s play has largely been inconsistent and he’ll likely struggle against this Texans defense, but he seems to flip the switch in big moments to make magic happen. The Broncos are 10th in scoring and ninth in yardage with 25.9 points and 356.9 yards per contest on the backs of one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks helmed by a resurgent J.K. Dobbins, but RJ Harvey may see a larger workload after a three-touchdown game last week. Courtland Sutton paces the wideout rotation and remains Nix’s top target, and the passing game does still fall 14th in yardage itself while the quarterback has taken the fewest sacks of any signal-caller.

Defensively, the Broncos are neck-and-neck with this week’s opponent in quality and depth of unit. They allow 18.9 points and 281.4 yards per contest, both fifth-best, and fall top-10 against both the run and the pass. However, All-Pro cornerback and reigning DPOY Pat Surtain II won’t play due to an injury and feels like a major loss against Collins, even with talents like Riley Moss and Jahdae Barron serving as the next men up. This pass rush also wreaks havoc with a 12.29% sack rate, best in the league, making up for the 0.9 takeaways forced.

Texans vs. Broncos pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Texans as slim -1.5 favorites with -122 odds on the Moneyline. The Broncos are listed at +102 odds to win on the Moneyline with the game total set at 39.5 combined points, the lowest of this slate.

Somehow, the line doesn’t quite feel low enough for this game. These are pretty clearly the two best defenses in the NFL bar none, even with Surtain out for Denver. The Houston O-line may have its fair share of issues keeping Stroud upright here, limiting the effectiveness of the passing game unless Caley can scheme up some additional quick-game looks for Collins, Noel, etc. The Texans try and throw deep far too often for a team without time to throw, and the Broncos are tough to run on anyways, so scoring looks low on their side. Likewise, even the Denver trenches and run game could struggle against Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, while this versatile secondary of Derek Stingley Jr. and Co. will manage to limit the plays over the middle that Sean Payton loves to run.

Two tentatively-stoppable forces meet immovable objects on Sunday. Is a 17-14 final in the cards for this one? Absolutely, and it may just be the most likely outcome. This looks like a fantastic matchup that just may not be for everyone, but throw something on the under here and enjoy the show.

Best bet: Under 39.5 points (-105)