MARSHALL, Texas (KLTV) – An East Texas economist sheds light on the latest tariff updates and their potential impact on consumers, businesses, and the economy as the holiday season approaches.
Perryman highlighted the fluid nature of tariff policies and the resulting uncertainty.
“Part of the problem is things change all the time and we don’t know exactly what’s going to be happening,” said Perryman. “The biggest thing recently is, we have postponed some of the most draconian tariffs on China, and seem to be working towards some kind of arrangement there.”
Perryman noted the large amount of goods the U.S. purchases from China and how the tariffs could cause a large price spike during the holidays.
“We buy a lot of consumer goods from China and that could lead to some very significant price increases around Christmas if those were to go into effect at the levels that were talked about,” said Perryman.
As November begins, holiday shoppers are starting to plan their purchases. However, Dr. Perryman warns that the cost of many holiday items, including electronics, toys, and clothing, will likely increase due to widespread tariffs.
“Virtually every place now has some level of tariff imposed on it,” said Perryman. “We’ve also seen a little bit of a slowdown in the economy. It’s not dramatic yet but but you can just look at the numbers.”
Perryman went on to explain that, historically Texas had averaged 20,000-30,000 new jobs per month. However, according to Perryman, that has seen a significant drop, gaining only about 20,000 jobs in the last four combined months.
“There’s been a definite slowdown, in fact, we had one month of negative job growth in Texas, which doesn’t happen very often,” said Perryman. “And the same thing is true at the national level, so we’re beginning to see some signs. Again, not of anything catastrophic or anything like that, but it’s slowing down some.”
Perryman also commented on recent new tariffs brought against Canada on building materials like aluminum, lumber, and steel. Perryman argued that the tariffs could worsen the housing shortage facing many parts of America.
“We need to be building a lot a lot of houses, a lot of commercial construction, that type of thing,” said Perryman. “All of those things are impacted by tariffs on things like lumber and steel and aluminum, glass, the things that go into the building process. So that can have a disproportionate impact in that particular industry, which is also struggling from some labor market impacts from some of the immigration policies as well. They’re having a hard time finding workers.”
The Senate recently voted to block tariffs on Brazil, which were reportedly around 50%. While this move is unlikely to pass the House immediately, Perryman sees it as a significant indicator.
“I think what it does say is you now have five senators in the Republican Party saying we don’t like tariffs basically,” said Perryman. “We’re more than a year away from the midterms right now, and some of the pain is just beginning to be felt. I mean, at first people stocked up on inventory before the tariffs and then you saw merchants are usually reluctant to pass the cost on at first. We’re starting to see every month now, a little bit more of it being passed on. I think as the practical reality of this sets in, I think you’ll see our policies kind of back up a little bit from some of the some of the tariffs.”
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