A dryline in the northeastern Panhandle could spark thunderstorm development beginning as early as 2 p.m., though the greatest window for severe weather is expected between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m., according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Amarillo Office.
The odds of storms forming remain relatively low, with only a 10 to 20 percent chance of development. However, any storm that does develop could become severe, bringing the potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Ping-pong-ball-sized hall and wind gusts around 60 miles per hour are expected to be the primary hazards, though there is also a low possibility for an isolated tornado.
“The thunderstorms may form quickly and strongly only to then choke its own updraft with its rain,” Amarillo forecasters wrote in their outlook Sunday. “This leaves the low chance for a thunderstorm to become strong to severe with its main threats being large hail and then damaging winds when it collapses.”
If storms form, they’re expected to move from west-southwest to east-northeast across the region.
The severe storm threat comes as much of the Panhandle faces a moderate to major heat risk, increasing the chance of heat-related illness for those without adequate cooling or those spending extended time outdoors. Temperatures are expected to soar into the triple digits, with some parts of the Panhandle approaching record highs near 106 degrees.
“Due to this threat a Heat Advisory has been issued for (the Palo Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley),” Amarillo forecasters wrote. “It is encouraged to drink plenty of fluids and take cooling breaks if you are outdoors during this heat.”