The Coastal Bend could see as much as 4 to 6 inches of rainfall this week, driven by “a plume of tropical moisture,” according to the National Weather Service.
In a posted update the morning of June 15, meteorologists at the NWS’s local office showed chances of rainfall and thunderstorms — some significant — from June 15 to June 19.
A flash flood watch for the entirety of South Texas was in effect as of the morning of June 15 through 7 p.m. on June 16, according to graphics posted on the weather service’s website.
A runoff from Oso Bay near Edinburg Circle shows an increase of heavy rain effects in Corpus Christi, Texas, on May 27, 2026.
The prediction is based on a “combination of a moist tropical airmass, a stalling front, daily seabreeze circulations, and a broad area of low pressure over northeastern Mexico,” it states.
In South Texas, there could be a period of as much as 5 inches of rain within an hour, according to the NWS.
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The posted forecast shows a 10% possibility of rainfall totals between June 15 and June 19 reaching as high as more than 8 inches.
However, the most likely scenario for the Coastal Bend area is a total of 4 to 6 inches, a graphic illustrates.
Potential tropical activity
A tracked disturbance has about 30% chance of developing into what is known as a “tropical cyclone” along the Texas Gulf Coast within the next week, and 20% within the next two days, according to a forecast posted to the National Hurricane Center’s website.
The term tropical cyclone can mean a wide range of severity in the storms — everything from a tropical depression to a hurricane.
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“A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity,” states the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website.
Tropical development isn’t expected for June 15, it notes, but the system is may “re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek.”
If the disturbance were named, it would be Arthur.
Rain chances by day
Below is the forecast rain in the Coastal Bend this week, as shown on NWS’s website:
June 15: About 70% during the day and between 50% and 70% overnight.
June 16: About 90% during the day and about 60% overnight.
June 17: About 50% during the day and about 30% overnight.
June 18: About 20% during the day and the same overnight.
June 19: About 30% during the day and about 40% overnight.
Rain chances would likely clear June 20 and June 21, according to the NWS’s extended forecast.
Kirsten Crow covers city government and water news. Have a story idea? Contact her at kirsten.crow@caller.com.
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This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Here’s what to know about rain forecast for Corpus Christi this week