Terence Braggs,4, cools off in a sprinkler at Zilker Park on June 20, 2019, during one of Austin’s warmest summers on record. The city’s hottest summers on record have all occurred within the past two decades.
RICARDO B. BRAZZIELL//AMERICAN-STATESMAN]
If you’ve lived in Austin long enough, chances are you’ve heard (or said) the phrase, “Austin weather just isn’t the same anymore.”
While it may sound like simple nostalgia, five decades of weather data show there is truth behind the sentiment, from hotter summers and warmer nights to more extreme weather events and fewer cold outbreaks.
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Hotter summers
It’s not your imagination — summers in Austin have steadily grown hotter over the years. According to data compiled by the nonprofit climate research group Climate Central, the number of above-normal summer temperature days has increased by 50 days, while Austin’s average summer temperature has climbed five degrees.
In fact, the hottest summers on record have all occurred within the past two decades. Since 2009, several summers in Austin have had average temperatures between 88 and 89 degrees during meteorological summer, which spans June through August. That figure represents the combined average of both overnight lows and daytime highs.
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However, the warming trend extends far beyond Texas. According to an analysis by Climate Central, 97% of the 242 United States cities studied have experienced warmer summers, with average summer temperatures increasing by about 2.6 degrees.
About 75% of the country has seen warmer summers, with some locations, especially in Texas and the desert Southwest, experiencing temperature increases of up to 5 degrees.
Climate Central
More 100-degree days
Austin’s history of triple-digit heat shows a clear warming trend over time. From when record-keeping began in 1898 until 2024, the long-term average of 100 degrees days was 16 days per year. However, that number has increased significantly and the National Weather Service’s current climate normals period of 1991 through 2020, Austin averages 37 triple-digit days.
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Recent summers have reflected that trend, with 32 days of 100-degree heat recorded in 2024 and an intense 80 days in 2023. But, during the historic drought and heat wave of 2011, when Austin endured a staggering 90 days with temperatures at or above 100 degrees which is the record.
HOT SUMMER: What day in Austin is statistically the hottest?
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More intense rainfall events
Living in Central Texas, we know that when it rains, it doesn’t just pour—it can come down in torrents, leading to significant flooding and unfortunately, we’ve become accustomed to this feast-or-famine pattern of weather in Flash Flood Alley.
TEXAS FLOODING: What’s ‘Flash Flood Alley’ and why is Austin and our region of Texas so prone to flooding?
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Since 2021, the region has been stuck in the “famine” phase, with persistent drought and annual rainfall deficits year after year. Austin typically receives more than 36 inches of rain annually, but the last time we reached that benchmark was in 2020 and 2021.
But precipitation patterns are shifting. Rather than falling steadily throughout the year, more rainfall is now concentrated in fewer, higher-impact storm events, hence the “feast” phase of our climate. According to Climate Central, when compared to the 1970s, average rainfall rates have increased by 19%, meaning storms today can produce significantly more rain in a much shorter period.
Today’s thunderstorms produce significantly more rainfall than similar storms did in the 1970s—up to 19% more on average..
Climate Central
The science behind this trend is straightforward: a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, so for every 1 degree of warming, the air can hold 4% more moisture, increasing the chances of heavier downpours that contribute to flash flooding.
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Longer summer season
Summer-like heat is arriving earlier and persisting longer into the fall as temperatures continue to rise across the Lone Star State. In Austin, the average first 100-degree day typically occurs around July 4. However, eight of the 10 earliest triple-digit temperature days on record have occurred since 1998, with the earliest recorded on May 4, 1984.
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At the opposite end of the season, triple-digit heat is also extending later into the year. Austin’s latest 100-degree day on record occurred on October 13, 2024, far beyond the average last 100-degree day of Aug. 30. In fact, seven of the 10 latest 100-degree days on record have occurred since 2000, with most falling in late September or early October.