For the Rockets to engage on this package, they’d have to be relatively low on Alperen Sengün and Amen Thompson as cornerstone players.
Though teams tend to overvalue their in-house talent relative to the market in situations like this, Houston already tipped its hand by inking Sengün to an extension below the rookie max in 2025. If the Rockets believed the big man was a no-brainer superstar, or if he’d clearly played like one on his rookie contract, he wouldn’t be on a sub-max deal.
Thompson, meanwhile, is among the best athletes and defenders at his position but comes with shooting woes that seem certain to limit his overall value. At the very least, there’s no precedent for building a team around a guard with a 21.9 percent stroke from three-point range.
If Houston correctly sees those two as something less than cornerstones, swapping the pair of them for Giannis is justifiable—especially since this deal is getting done with one pick changing hands. In an appearance on the Hardwood Knocks NBA Podcast with Dan Favale, Red Nation Hoops’ Salman Ali proposed a straight exchange of Sengün and Thompson for Antetokounmpo. That’s an intriguing setup, but we’re tweaking it in hopes of really getting Milwaukee’s attention.
The Rockets have several juicy future first-rounders that Milwaukee would covet, and plenty of expanded versions of this deal have much more draft equity heading to the Bucks. But it’s pretty clear these are the two best young players Milwaukee could realistically acquire for Giannis, and Houston could get away with playing some hardball. The 2027 pick from the Phoenix Suns seems necessary at a minimum.
If Milwaukee wanted to include Ryan Rollins, maybe Houston could be convinced to part with another pick or two.
Finally, the fit in Houston is just about perfect. Jabari Smith Jr. would still be there to operate as the spacing 5 Giannis needs, and Steven Adams would bring the backup bulk off the bench. Between Fred VanVleet, Reed Sheppard and Durant, the Rockets could surround Antetokounmpo with ample shooting to space the floor. Tari Eason is still here in this hypothetical, and if the restricted free agent returns, that looks like a very dangerous, potentially championship-caliber seven-man rotation.