A rare summer flu outbreak has hit Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, sparking concerns over potential spread in the city.
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The number of flu cases at a San Antonio military base is rising quickly. Now, fears are mounting about a very rare early-season outbreak as commanding officers and support staff commute to and from the base, increasing the risk of spread beyond the military compound. However, local health leaders paint a picture of hope should flu season come months early.
Typically, positive flu test results begin to spike as summer ends and the fall months creep in. But more than 200 Air Force members at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland have contracted some form of the influenza virus in June, sparking concerns over public safety.
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“After Secretary [of War Pete] Hegseth scrapped the military’s flu vaccine mandate, it was only a matter of time before an outbreak occurred,” U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) said in a statement as news broke of the climbing flu numbers at JBSA-Lackland in San Antonio. “It was a reckless decision that put troops in harm’s way and undermined military readiness.”
By Castro’s most recent count, that number had ballooned to more than 220 – a highly unusual level of outbreak for this time of year, according to Dr. Bryan Alsip, University Health’s chief medical officer and a public health specialist. Castro was criticizing the mandate issued by Hegseth just over two months ago, which nixed the yearslong policy that all service members must receive an annual flu vaccine.
Most of these cases have involved trainees, but Joint Base San Antonio officials have provided no clear explanation of whether the spread has been largely contained to recruits. Alsip says young folks going through basic training have historically been considered high risk, at two to 16 times the risk of other service members. They’re kept in close quarters, worked extensively both physically and emotionally, and brought together from all over the country.
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However, the University Health chief medical officer says it’s not the trainees who pose the greatest risk of an early-season outbreak that extends beyond the walls of the military base. It’s the people working alongside them who are free to enter and exit the base, potentially incubating the virus without symptoms for a day or two.
“Not everyone lives on the base,” Alsip told MySA. “People who could be exposed to those who have influenza, whether they’re healthcare workers or senior enlisted who are training these basic trainees, or others, leave the base, and there’s always the potential that they could be infected and bring that outside of the confines of the installation.”
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it takes, on average, about two days for symptoms to appear after a recent flu infection, though it can take up to four days. Once symptoms appear, they can last for more than a week. Before, during and after symptoms, a person may be contagious, says the CDC.
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As of Tuesday, June 23, the outbreak has largely remained contained to JBSA-Lackland, according to the most recent data tracking the flu virus. But experts say it could be another week or two before it’s clear whether this will remain sequestered or lead to a larger issue in San Antonio.
Flu vaccines often start hitting the market in August and September, but an early fly outbreak could spark quicker response times.
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So, what happens if an outbreak spreads across the city in June or July, when vaccines are typically ready for mass sale in August and September? That’s the big question.
The World Health Organization Global Influenza Surveillance and Network meets each year in February and September to identify which flu variants are most likely to take hold in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. But it takes weeks or months to incubate them in eggs on a scale large enough to vaccinate the masses.
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However, should a large-scale outbreak occur, Alsip says some manufacturers are using mRNA technology to develop flu vaccines more quickly, much like was done to develop the COVID-19 vaccines in the early months of the global pandemic. But the technology has not been adopted by all large-scale vaccine producers, which could pose a risk to access if flu season kicks off months earlier than usual.
When it comes to administering flu vaccines, University Health leads the charge year over year, administering 17,000 vaccines between 2020 and 2025. On average, the local health hospital system vaccinates between 2,000 and 4,500 Bexar County residents each year, and it doesn’t cost residents anything, regardless of whether they have health insurance to bill.