Bouts of heavy rain and growing confidence in a “Super El Niño” this year have raised lake levels in Texas, sparking hopes that docks will stop sinking and watering holes will once again be swimmable. But the latest meteorological reports suggest this strong El Niño could spell prolonged drought for Texas, possibly sending those lake levels plummeting for years.
After months, or even years in some cases, of distressing news about some of the most beloved recreational reservoirs, the tides have turned. Medina Lake has reached nearly 10% full for the first time in years (doubling its water levels in a month). Canyon Lake‘s water levels have climbed 10 feet over the past year after reaching a 55-year record low.
Hopes are high as forecasters warn that a wetter fall and winter season are on the horizon for Texas, as a “Super El Niño” funnels the subtropical jet stream south toward Texas. But historic data supports AccuWeather meteorologists’ predictions: A strong El Niño is often followed by prolonged drought in Texas.
“Following the end of El Niño, the next two to three years could end up being significantly drier, leading to drought conditions, especially in parts of the plains from West Texas to the Dakotas,” AccuWeather expert Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. “El Niño patterns tend to be persistent, meaning places that end up drier than average can stay that way for an extended period of time, possibly for months or even years.”
This is especially concerning because meteorologists have repeatedly warned that any additional storms brought in by this Super El Niño likely won’t be the drought-killer people are hoping for. The Southwest and Southern Plains have been in drought for almost six years, so it’s going to take a lot of rain that actually seeps into aquifers to reverse the lasting impacts.
What’s often not realized is that brief rounds of heavy rainfall aren’t enough to replenish underground or above-ground water sources due to runoff, as saturated soil stops absorbing as much water, which feeds aquifers.
The National Integrated Drought Information System said that one good year of rain simply isn’t enough to eliminate the 6 years of drought that have plagued Texas, unless rain totals reach astronomical proportions, as they did in 1957 and 1958. That’s when historic floods swept through Texas towns, causing fatalities and devastation.
“It could definitely help with the drought, but maybe it won’t be a true drought fixer for Texas either,” AccuWeather meteorologist Peyton Simmers told MySA.
So, with any additional El Niño storms dragged over from the Pacific failing to reverse the prolonged drought and with years of dry days on the horizon as the El Niño season settles, it’s a troubling outlook for the swimming holes Texans are finally able to enjoy again.
“If the long-term drought is as bad as it could be and you are starting off already with severe drought, this raises the real possibility of a ‘mini-Dust Bowl,'” AccuWeather founder and executive chair Joel N. Myers said.