For months, alarm bells have been ringing about a “Super El Niño” developing in the Pacific Ocean, hurling a subtropical jet stream toward the south. This means wetter seasons, higher odds of bonkers winter weather in Texas and a confusing fall for southerners. Now, forecasters say a potentially record-setting El Niño season is all but guaranteed.
Chances are skyrocketing that a powerful El Niño will flip the forecast for the foreseeable future on its head. A record-crushing El Niño could mean stronger snowstorms in the northern stretch of Texas, along with heavy rains and chillier winters. And that’s becoming increasingly likely.
“There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December … that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950,” a memo from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, July 9, states. “In summary, El Niño continues and will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will last through early spring 2027.”
This means more thunderstorms or rain are on the horizon if any East Pacific tropical activity is pulled into Texas, along with any storm patterns that might sweep in from the west.
In San Antonio, that translates to upwards of 2 to 3 inches more rain in the winter than average and an inch or two of extra precipitation in the summer. There’s already evidence of this impact as meteorologists brace for a 2-inch downpour in the coming days, as a heat dome in the northern U.S. hurls a cold front at Texas.
During strong El Niño events, winter tends to be 2 to 3 degrees colder than normal, and summer tends to be a couple of degrees colder.
“Following the end of El Niño, the next two to three years could end up being significantly drier, leading to drought conditions, especially in parts of the plains from West Texas to the Dakotas,” AccuWeather expert meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. “El Niño patterns tend to be persistent, meaning places that end up drier than average can stay that way for an extended period of time, possibly for months or even years.”
While Texas could certainly use more rain after prolonged drought, it’s unclear whether a strong El Niño could be the lone Hail Mary needed to restore evaporating creeks and lakes.
Historically, a strong El Niño is followed by prolonged drought in Texas, often lasting years. According to long-range forecasts compiled by the National Weather Service, Texas tends to experience wetter and colder winters and summers.
The Southwest and Southern Plains have been in drought for almost six years, meaning it’s going to take a lot of rain that actually seeps into aquifers to reverse the lasting impacts. What’s often overlooked is that brief bouts of heavy rainfall aren’t enough to replenish underground or above-ground water sources due to runoff. Saturated soil stops absorbing as much water, which would otherwise feed aquifers.
This article originally published at ‘Super El Niño’ odds rise sky high –– what it means for Texas weather.