Tropical Storm Bertha made its first landfall Wednesday in Southeast Louisiana. As of 10 a.m. Thursday, the center of Bertha’s circulation was tracking along the southern Louisiana Gulf Coast, or about 100 miles east of Galveston. It’s moving west at 10 mph, and was expected to move ashore along the Texas coast by late Thursday afternoon.
For a tropical storm, Bertha is quite weak, with maximum wind speeds of only about 45 mph. Wind shear and dry air have greatly affected the storm’s development, causing much of the rainfall associated with the storm to be displaced to the south of its center.
The highest rainfall totals are likely to stay along the Texas coast, especially near and west of Corpus Christi. However, a few rain showers and storms will be possible locally in San Antonio, along with increasing wind gusts. Here’s a timeline of what you can expect.
Thursday afternoon (Noon to 5 p.m.): It’s going to be hot and dry this afternoon across the Alamo City. While rainfall starts along parts of the Texas coast, we should have mostly sunny skies in San Antonio. Temperatures will be at around 94 degrees at noon, rising to near 100 degrees by the late afternoon.
Elevated humidity will make the heat feel even worse, with heat index values expected to rise to between 105 and 110 degrees. A heat advisory is in place for all of South-Central Texas through 8 p.m..
Thursday evening (5 p.m. to 10 p.m.): As the center of Bertha moves closer, wind speeds are likely to increase across the San Antonio area. Ssustained wind speeds at 15 mph could include some gusts reaching 25-30 mph at times.
We also have a small chance of even stronger winds. According to the National Hurricane Center’s forecast, San Antonio has a 5% to 10% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, with gusts reaching at least 39 mph.
Temperatures will be slow to fall, likely lingering in the mid-90s through 8 p.m. Finally, temps will drop into the upper 80s by 10 p.m.
Overnight (10 p.m. to 5 a.m.): This is when San Antonio will have its best chance of rain, as the center of Bertha moves nearby. Still, overall rain chances will be on the low side, with just a 20% to 30% chance of scattered showers and storms across the metro area.
A few flashes of lightning will be possible, but most storms are not expected to be strong. We have little to no chance of flooding throughout South-Central Texas.
Rainfall totals will stay very light in San Antonio, with most areas likely to see less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall. A few isolated areas could see slightly higher amounts, up to a quarter-inch of rain.
Areas farther south will encounter more rainfall, with totals likely between a half-inch and 2 inches from Corpus Christi westward to Kingsville, Hebbronville, and Zapata.