Breaking down the Week 11 matchup between Texas Tech and BYU…
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 8 Texas Tech
When: 11 a.m. Saturday at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas
Records: No. 8 Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1); No. 7 BYU (8-0, 5-0)
Last meeting: BYU defeated Texas Tech 27-14 in Provo, Utah on Oct. 21, 2023
Sports Roundup
TV: ABC
What’s at stake?
The winner on Saturday will be the eventual Big 12 regular season champion. Texas Tech has UCF (4-4) and West Virginia (3-6) remaining, meaning a win over BYU would put the Red Raiders in the driver’s seat of the conference. However, a loss will force Texas Tech into a three-way battle for the second spot in the conference championship.
Furthermore, a Texas Tech victory Saturday would near-guarantee a spot in the College Football Playoff, even with a loss in the conference championship. Once again, a loss would put the Red Raiders in limbo until a handful of other teams lost crucial games.
Without being overly dramatic, Saturday could be the most important game in Texas Tech football’s history.
When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech’s first-quarter offense has been sluggish in each of its high-profile games against then-No. 16 Utah, Arizona State and Kansas State. Offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich admitted to running a conservative offense with the carousel of injuries his quarterbacks have faced — Behren Morton was sidelined for two weeks with a lower-leg injury, and Will Hammond tore his ACL on Oct. 25.
Kansas State was Morton’s first start since Oct. 11, and he said it took him a quarter to get back into his rhythm. The veteran quarterback will have no problem playing his game Saturday, but he will need the support of sophomore running backs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams. In games where Dickey or Williams eclipses 100 yards, Texas Tech dominates.
Morton needs the defense to respect the run for him to take risks vertically in one-on-one routes for wide receivers Caleb Douglas and Reggie Virgil. If Texas Tech can’t get the run game started, its passing game will suffer just the same.
Thankfully for the Red Raiders, their offense has not relied on the red zone for the bulk of its scoring. BYU owns the No. 1 red zone defense in the conference and has forced five possession changes in the red zone against Big 12 opponents this season. Texas Tech has had one opponent-forced turnover in the red zone this season.
When BYU has the ball
The Cougars are undefeated and battle-tested for a shootout. They play most effectively on the ground, as true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier isn’t forced to man the entirety of the offense. However, the ground play is led by him.
Bachmeier has nine rushing touchdowns on 408 yards. He runs primarily between his tackles rather than outside like most dual-threat quarterbacks Texas Tech has faced. Members of the Red Raider defense said Tuesday that Bachmeier is a “bruiser” type of scrambler.
BYU is facing the No. 1 rush defense in the country, but it will still lean on Bachmeier to force Heisman-candidate linebacker Jacob Rodriguez to play as a quarterback spy. If Bachmeier can eliminate Rodriguez from traditional coverage, the middle of the field will become a significantly less dangerous area for receivers to catch and run.
Rodriguez had two punch-outs Saturday against Kansas State in the middle of the field.
BYU running back LJ Martin is listed as probable on the Cougars’ availability report after a shoulder injury sidelined him on Oct. 25. His impact Saturday will be similar to Dickey and Williams for Texas Tech in that his lack of production will directly impact the passing game as well.
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Prediction
There’s an energy sitting outside of Jones AT&T Stadium that Lubbock hasn’t had in a long time. Over 100 tents have been camped along the south side of the stadium since Monday night and head coach Joey McGuire is signing beer kegs.
There is no statistical evidence that points to teams winning solely off of crowd energy and relationships, but Saturday will be at the top of someone’s senior thesis because of what happens.
Final score: Texas Tech 40, BYU 17
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