THREE RIVERS – Major flooding already inundating portions of the Nueces River in McMullen County is expected to spread into Live Oak County this week as a surge of water moves downstream toward Three Rivers and eventually Lake Corpus Christi, prompting flood warnings and renewed calls for residents to prepare.
The National Weather Service said Tuesday that the Nueces River near Tilden remained in major flood stage and is expected to stay there for the next several days. Downstream, the river near Three Rivers is forecast to continue a gradual rise Tuesday before reaching flood stage Wednesday and climbing into major flood stage by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Forecasters predict the river will crest at about 40.2 feet Thursday evening, exceeding the 35-foot threshold for major flooding.
At 7:15 a.m. Monday, the river at Three Rivers measured just 6.2 feet, but National Weather Service forecasts call for a rapid rise beginning Tuesday.
If the river reaches 40 feet, significant flooding is expected well beyond the main channel between Three Rivers and Lake Corpus Christi.
The weather service warned that up to 4 feet of water could inundate parts of the River Creek Acres subdivision. Kellner Camp along County Road 336 could be surrounded by several feet of water, while Antelope Lane is expected to flood, cutting off access to the J.I. Hailey subdivision near Jones River Bend. Water also is forecast to approach the foundations of homes in the Buckeye Knoll subdivision, about 2 miles west of Swinney Switch.
The National Weather Service’s latest river forecast graphic, issued shortly before 6 a.m. Tuesday, shows the river near Tilden cresting near 23 feet – well above its 19-foot major flood stage – and remaining elevated into next week before beginning a slow recession. At Three Rivers, the hydrograph shows a steep rise beginning Wednesday and leveling off near 40 feet through the weekend before gradually falling.
The same forecast indicates Lake Corpus Christi will begin a slow rise over the next day or two as floodwaters move downstream, with lake levels expected to continue increasing through at least next week. While the lake remained relatively stable Tuesday morning at about 83 feet above mean sea level, forecasters said inflows from the Nueces River will steadily increase in the coming days.
The Live Oak County Office of Emergency Management said it will continue monitoring National Weather Service forecasts and provide updates as conditions change. Flood warnings remain in effect for the Nueces River at Cotulla in La Salle County, near Tilden in McMullen County and near Three Rivers in Live Oak County.
Emergency officials urged residents living in flood-prone areas to stay alert for changing conditions and heed evacuation instructions if they become necessary.
The National Weather Service also reminded motorists to “Turn Around, Don’t Drown,” warning that most flood-related fatalities occur when drivers attempt to cross flooded roadways. Officials urged motorists not to drive around barricades and advised residents to use caution near swollen riverbanks as water levels continue rising.