A new poll from Fox News shows state Rep. James Talarico with an edge over Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat.
The poll showed the Democrat leading Paxton by three points, 51-48, and holding strong leads among key constituencies, including independent voters.
It’s not the first poll to show a close race, and a New York Times poll in June showed the high-profile contest was tied.
While Talarico faces an uphill climb in his quest to win the first statewide seat for Democrats in decades, the Fox News poll shows him winning 68% of independents and about a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans.
Despite some recent concerns about his performance with Black voters, about 87% of those surveyed said they would support Talarico in November. Talarico also did well with Hispanic voters, a key demographic Republicans have targeted after many in South Texas voted in 2024 for President Donald Trump. Talarico received support from about 60% of Hispanic voters who were polled.
Talarico also polled well with voters under 30.
Paxton edged out Talarico among white evangelical Christians, white men without a college degree and rural voters.
Paxton’s team says they aren’t concerned.
“The only poll that matters is November 3rd,” said Nick Maddux, a senior advisor to Paxton, in a statement. “Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream.”
The poll also showed Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic candidate for governor, lagging behind Gov. Greg Abbott by one point. It found that among potential crossover voters, roughly 12% of those who said they would back Talarico also said they would choose Abbott.
The latest research from Fox News surveyed more than 1,000 registered Texas voters from July 23-27. The news site worked with Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican firm, to conduct the survey. Its margin of error is estimated to be three points.