While Lowry cautioned it’s too early to write off the month entirely, he said atmospheric conditions currently don’t favor tropical development.
“I’m not bold enough—even in a year like this one—to suggest we’ll see the Atlantic completely shutdown this August (especially deeper into August), but we should certainly expect it’ll be much quieter than usual,” Lowry said. “For now, however, we’re not seeing any such development windows in the near future and forecast models show little to nothing through at least the first week or two of August.”
Forecasters say El Niño is expected to play a major role in the anticipated lull by increasing wind shear and creating less favorable atmospheric conditions for tropical development.
“This striking pattern reflects just how much of a toll the historic El Niño is taking on the atmosphere,” Lowry wrote.
Current forecasts continue to point toward a quieter-than-average hurricane season.
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30.
The agency is forecasting eight to 14 named storms, with three to six expected to become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes. Another update is expected from the NOAA in early August ahead of the historical peak of the season.
“NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges,” the agency wrote on May 21. “An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.”
Colorado State University is also anticipating a well-below-normal season.
“We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the university wrote in a July 8 forecast. “As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season.”