The Texas Education Agency will release accountability ratings for schools across the state this Friday. That includes the Austin Independent School District, where failing grades at one of three middle schools could trigger state intervention of the whole district.

Currently, eight Texas districts are operating under takeovers by the Texas Education Agency. At least nine, including AISD, are at risk of intervention due to campuses with consecutive failing ratings.

After the TEA rejected AISD’s plan to improve students’ performance for three failing schools in May, a fifth unacceptable rating for Burnet, Dobie or Webb middle schools could trigger state-mandated changes that would impact all AISD campuses. A takeover would not be immediate for the district, which starts classes on Tuesday. The timeline and level of state intervention would depend on Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath.

Beth Schueler, an associate professor of education at Stanford University, said it’s hard to pinpoint if the rise in district takeovers in Texas is because of lower post-pandemic test scores, financial strain on school districts or political pressure. Schueler said that takeovers are not a silver bullet to improve academic outcomes and in some cases can be less disruptive than what people may expect.

“Takeovers have implications not just for the students in the school systems, but also the adults in the system, employees of the school system and teachers and administrators, those with decision-making authority,” she said.

What triggers a state intervention?

The TEA releases annual A-F accountability ratings for every school in the state. The ratings are largely based on the results of the State of Texas Assessments of Academic Readiness, or STAAR, test. If a single campus receives five consecutive unacceptable ratings, the state must intervene.

Interventions can also happen because of financial mismanagement, leadership and governance issues, if the district is subject to a special investigation or if it is not complying with state or federal laws. In every case, the state’s education commissioner decides what action will be taken.

Districts have previously closed schools to avoid a takeover. Wichita Falls ISD avoided state takeover by closing its school with unacceptable ratings and partnering with a charter school at the campus where those students moved. Earlier this year, the TEA appointed a conservator to monitor the district’s progress and advise the school board and superintendent.

What happens during a takeover?

In the event of a takeover, the governor-appointed education commissioner assigns a new superintendent and a board of managers to replace the elected school board.

The appointed board of managers must reside within the school district and makes decisions that impact all the campuses, including amending the district’s budget, reassigning staff or relocating academic programs.

Daniel Dawer, a former teacher and a PhD candidate in the College of Education at the University of Texas at Austin, is researching the impacts of takeovers. He said the model takes away community control of school districts.

“There’s no way for the public to vote out board members whose votes they disagree with or to replace them,” Dawer said. “It creates a situation where a superintendent, as long as they’re continuing to receive approving votes from the board of managers, can pursue whatever reforms they would like to pursue, regardless of their popularity among the public.”

Two years after a board of managers is appointed, the commissioner must announce when the intervention will end or extend it. The appointed board can only be removed if the campus that triggered the intervention receives an acceptable rating — an A, B or C — two years in a row.

Houston ISD as a blueprint for takeovers

Houston ISD, the largest district in the state, was handed to a board of managers in 2023. Since then, the district has seen a decline in enrollment, going from over 189,000 students in 2023 to around 168,900 in 2026. Dawer said what happened in Houston could serve as the blueprint for a takeover of Austin ISD.

After being assigned a new superintendent, 28 Houston ISD schools had to implement a reform model called the New Education System, which some community organizers have described as a “militaristic” approach to education. Principals were laid off and teachers had to reapply for their jobs. Some of them were not rehired. The number of schools under the reform model has increased to over 130 from 2023 to 2026.

Dawer said instruction at those schools is “highly prescribed,” with standardized slideshows and work packets, along with a minute-by-minute teaching schedule for educators to follow and a test-intensive approach.

“People need to recognize that this model looks very different from what we typically think about when we think about what’s happening in classrooms and instruction,” Dawer said.

Dawer said teachers are also constantly being observed and evaluated to determine their compensation level, since the district moved to a “pay-for-performance” system.

The changes have caused teachers and staff to leave the district in high numbers, with reports of the district’s teacher turnover being almost double the state average. During a Texas House Public Education Committee hearing in June, community organizer Jessi Heiner said more than 4,500 HISD employees were terminated and 17,000 resigned during the first two years of the takeover. That exodus means the district lost years of institutional knowledge, she said.

Dawer has interviewed more than 60 teachers who left the district.

“When I asked them why they left, the reason wasn’t because of the pay or because of the expectations for them,” Dawer said. “It was because what they were being asked to do violated their ethical commitments to good teaching. They saw these expectations as contrary to what they believe students deserve to have.”

Public education advocates said a high turnover rate also leads to more spending to hire, train and retain new teachers. The number of uncertified teachers has also grown since the takeover began.

Since the takeover, HISD students have improved their STAAR passing scores. Schueler said it is common for students to do better on standardized tests after takeovers.

“When you have accountability policies that are geared toward improving tests for outcomes, there may be trade-offs,” she said. “That improvement on the test scores might not always reflect purely as improvements in math achievement or reading achievement.”

The future of Austin ISD

AISD officials declined to comment on potential TEA action, but said in a statement that they believe the district is showing “strong academic strides” based on the 2025-2026 preliminary STAAR results.

If a campus gets a fifth unacceptable rating, it could be months before Morath takes action. Based on other district’s timelines, a takeover announcement could come as soon as October and a new board could be appointed in March of 2027.