Attendees of North Texas campaign events hold up signs supporting Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico as they run against each other for U.S. Senate in Texas.
Elvis Martinez-Cartagena (left); Abigail Dollins (right)
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
If you’ve been following the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, you already know the story the polls keep telling: it’s close. Really close.
As the Nov. 3 midterm looms, it’s worth taking stock of what the numbers have actually shown over the past few months.
Here’s a recap of the recent polling.
The latest numbers: A virtual tie
Recent polling has Talarico and Paxton neck-in-neck as they vie for the statewide seat – the marquee race of this year’s midterm elections in Texas. Recent polling includes:
A poll from Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media put the race in dead heat, with Paxton winning 47% of votes to Talarico’s 46%. The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between Aug. 9-10. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. In plain terms, that means the real number could swing 3 points in either direction.A poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, shows Talarico ahead of Paxton by 2 points — 47% to 45%. The poll surveyed 1,200 likely Texas voters between July 27 and Aug. 2, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.A Fox News poll had Talarico up by 3 points, which is within the survey’s margin of error. The poll was conducted between July 23-27 and surveyed 1,006 Texas registered voters, according to Fox.The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin conducted a poll between June 5-12 of 1,200 self-reported registered voters that had a 2.8-point margin of error. It polled Paxton winning 43% of votes to Talarico’s 42%How we got here
For readers who haven’t been tracking the primary season closely: Paxton became the Republican nominee by defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 GOP primary runoff.
That set up the general election matchup with Talarico, an Austin-area state representative who won the Democratic primary in March, defeating U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas.
What’s next
Early voting runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, with the general election on Nov. 3. If the polls are right, the Senate race will come down to which campaign moves the last few percentage points its way.
More polling results in Texas’ U.S. Senate race
Curious what other polls have said about the contest between Paxton and Talarico? The following organizations have landing pages online that track polling numbers.
The summary points above were compiled with the help of AI tools and edited by journalists. The source reporting referenced above was written and edited entirely by journalists.
This story was originally published August 15, 2026 at 4:58 AM.
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Eleanor (Elly) Dearman is a Texas politics and government reporter for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. She’s based in Austin, covering the Legislature and its impact on North Texas. She grew up in Denton and has been a reporter for more than six years.
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