At 27 years old and with 23 professional fights on his resume, it’s fair to ask if Vergil Ortiz still qualifies as a prospect. On Saturday, Ortiz will attempt to move further from prospect and closer to world champion when he faces former title challenger Erickson Lubin.
Saturday’s fight continues a run of Ortiz fights against tough opposition that began after muscle disorder rhabdomyolysis sidelined him from August 2022 to January 2024. Prior to that time on the sidelines, Ortiz was a red-hot up-and-comer, racking up tertiary titles at welterweight while struggling to find elite opponents.
After Ortiz returned to action, he campaigned at 154 pounds, and after shaking off ring rust with first-round knockouts of Fredrick Lawson and Thomas Dulorme, Ortiz began to fight the kind of tricky opponents who are often avoided by fighters looking to climb their way to a title shot.
Vergil Ortiz Jr. faces another tough challenge in Erickson Lubin as champions continue to avoid him
Brian Campbell
First was Serhii Bohachuk, who entered the fight after defeating Brian Mendoza. Ortiz was truly tested for the first time in his career in that fight, suffering two knockdowns but battling back to earn a majority decision victory.
Ortiz followed the win over Bohachuk with a fight against Israil Madrimov, who gave Terence Crawford all he could handle one fight prior, losing a narrow decision to the elite pound-for-pound mainstay. Ortiz took a few rounds to work out Madrimov’s awkward style, but ultimately took a decision win by wider margins than Crawford had managed.
Lubin continues Ortiz’s attempt to make his first shot at a world championship undeniable. Only two men have defeated Lubin as a professional: Jermell Charlo and Sebastian Fundora, both fighters who have held world championships. The fight with Fundora was a contender for Fight of the Year in 2022.
Lubin has not been active in recent years. Since a somewhat controversial decision over Jesus Ramos in 2023, Lubin has only fought once, beating Ardreal Holmes Jr. in May.
With a win over Lubin, a title shot should be more or less guaranteed for Ortiz. The Ortiz team was already gunning for a shot at WBO champ Xander Zayas when negotiations never got over the finish line, leading to the Lubin fight. Zayas is now reportedly set to face WBA titlist Abass Baraou in a Jan. 31 unification bout. The timing could work out for Ortiz to get a shot at whoever emerges as unified champion sometime in mid-2026.
The undercard is a bit weak on Saturday night. There are some matchups in the middleweight and super middleweight ranks featuring fighters looking to make a move up the divisional ranks. Darius Fulghum is set to take on David Stevens at 168 pounds. Fulghum suffered his first pro defeat in his last outing in May against Bektemir Melikuziev. Prior to that Fulghum won the first 14 bouts of his career. Plus, cruiserweights are set to throw down when Robin Sirwan Safar takes on Derick Miller Jr. Safar is a top prospect in the 200-pound division with an undefeated record at 18-0 with 13 KOs. He picked up the biggest win of his career in May 2024 with a decision over former light heavyweight king Sergey Kovalev.
Let’s take a closer look at the rest of the undercard with the latest odds before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.
Ortiz vs. Lubin fight card, odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Vergil Ortiz Jr. -1000 vs. Erickson Lubin +600, junior middleweightsDarius Fulghum -500 vs. David Stevens +350, super middleweightsRobin Sirwan Safar -700 vs. Derick Miller Jr. +425, cruiserweightsEric Priest -3500 vs. Esneiker Correa +1300, middleweightsAmari Jones -2500 vs. Shady Gamhour +1100, middleweightsOrtiz vs. Lubin viewing informationDate: Nov. 8 | Location: Dickies Arena — Fort Worth, TexasStart time: 8 p.m. ET (main event ringwalks approximately 11:30 p.m. ET)Where to watch: DAZN (subscription required)Prediction
Lubin is a legit opponent for Ortiz, with good power and skills. Ortiz is, however, the better fighter overall. The past two fights have shown new dimensions to Ortiz while answering a lot of questions. Ortiz showed he can get up off the canvas and continue to fight for the win, not just to survive, against Bohachuk. And Ortiz proved he can handle a slick, awkward boxer against Madrimov.
Lubin has enough power in both hands that he could score a knockout, but Ortiz can return fire and is the better boxer. This is all to say that Ortiz is a -1000 favorite for a reason.
Lubin was stopped by both Charlo and Fundora. Though Ortiz has gone to decision in his two most recent fights (the only fights in his career to go the distance), this is the kind of fight where he can get back to stopping opponents. Pick: Vergil Ortiz via TKO8