Arizona State could’ve gained some ground in the Big 12 title race on Saturday had BYU given Texas Tech its second conference loss on Saturday.
With the Red Raiders picking up a comfortable win, they’re in the driver’s seat for a title game appearance along with whichever team wins the BYU-Cincinnati matchup on Nov. 22. Those three squads each have one conference loss entering the final three weeks.
ASU needs to win out to still have a chance, and it needs to start hoping for absolute chaos elsewhere around the conference.
The structure of the Big 12 — as well as its sheer volume of 16 teams — allows for chaotic finishes in the standings, such as last season when ASU tied with three other teams at 7-2 in the conference standings and was the home team in the title game.
Who are the Big 12 contenders and who do they still have to play?
For this exercise, we’ll look at teams in positions equal to or better than Arizona State at 4-2 in conference.
The trio of aforementioned one-loss teams along with ASU, Houston and Utah make up the group of six squads in the mix. Here’s who they each play the rest of the way:
Texas Tech (6-1 in Big 12): vs. UCF, BYE, at West Virginia
BYU (5-1): vs. TCU, at Cincinnati, vs. UCF
Cincinnati (5-1): vs. Arizona, vs. BYU, at TCU
Houston (5-2): BYE, vs. TCU, at Baylor
ASU (4-2): vs. West Virginia, at Colorado, vs. Arizona
Utah (4-2): at Baylor, vs. Kansas State, at Kansas
BYU or Cincinnati is guaranteed to get one loss in that matchup. One additional loss from each of the five teams would position a hypothetically 7-2 ASU squad well.
The strength of schedule over the last three weeks favors ASU more than the others.
As of Saturday evening, ASU has the fifth-best odds (+3300) to win the title, per FanDuel. Texas Tech is a heavy favorite (-310) with BYU (+650), Cincinnati (+1000) and Utah (+1100) trailing. There’s a big drop-off with Houston (+10000).
