As Invest 97-L, a tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico, continues to develop this week, Texas meteorologists now say it has a 70% chance of becoming a depression or tropical storm as it moves west toward the Texas-Louisiana coast.
WOAI News 4 Chief Meteorologist Chris Suchan shared in a Sunday, August 30, Facebook post that he is keeping an eye on forecast data trends for the growing disturbances, specifically over the next two to three days, to see if the rapidly organizing tropical wave could produce moisture for the San Antonio viewing area later this week.
Meanwhile, CBS Austin Meteorologist Michael Crowley shared late Sunday that even as the system becomes more organized, forecasters remain unsure how it will behave. He noted the possibility that the disturbance could cause issues if it stalls out “in the wrong place,” which it could do when it hits Texas.
“I don’t much like the sound of that,” the meteorologist wrote. “In all, I’ve got my eyes glued to this system.”
Current forecast models suggest the Austin area could see locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns between Tuesday and Thursday this week. The Austin meteorologist said the area could receive 4 to 7 inches of rainfall in eastern parts of the state, and the Weather Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk alert –– level one out of four for this week –– with the possibility of another alert being issued by Friday.
If the growing disturbance reaches tropical storm force, it will be named Edouard.
“Could this make landfall as a hurricane? I honestly doubt it, but we are very early in the forecasting process for this thing and there is still a lot of uncertainty about this storm,” Crowley shared with his followers.
Crowley said that a shifting high pressure could steer the system west, similar to Tropical Storm Bertha earlier this year, but that this time there likely won’t be another area of high pressure to block it from affecting major cities in the Lone Star State, such as Houston, College Station and potentially Austin.
“This is 100% something we need to watch closely. Don’t make the HEB employees cry just yet, their toilet paper is safe for now,” he said.