Tropical Storm Edouard formed Monday night in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Storm Edouard formed Monday night in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, prompting tropical storm warnings for coastal Southeast Texas.
As of 7 p.m. Monday, the rotating center of Edouard was about 175 miles southeast of Port Arthur and had sustained winds of 40 mph, and was moving west-northwest at 6 mph.
Tropical storm warnings, which include communities in Chambers County like Anahuac and Mont Belvieu, will remain in effect through at least Tuesday ahead of Edouard’s arrival.
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Where is Tropical Storm Edouard going next?
Tropical Storm Edouard is expected to continue drifting northwest through Tuesday morning before reaching Southeast Texas likely Tuesday afternoon or evening.
TRACK EDOUARD: Keep an eye on Tropical Storm Edouard as it approaches Southeast Texas.:
The tropical system only has a window of about 24 hours to gain intensity, with most forecast intensity models keeping Edouard well below the 74-mph threshold required to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Still, with above normal warmth found in the northern Gulf where Edouard is located, some strengthening is possible before it reaches landfall.
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Confidence is high that Edouard will thread the needle between High Island and Sabine Pass, which would keep the strongest wind gusts and heaviest rainfall likely just east of Houston.
What can Houston expect from Edouard?
Flooding: The risk of localized flooding will be the primary threat posed by Tropical Storm Edouard, especially near and east of Interstate 45.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has a level 2 of 4 risk of flooding across much of Southeast Texas, including the Houston metro, on Tuesday, with that flood risk expanding northward along I-45.
The first tropical downpours are expected to reach the coast Tuesday morning, likely reaching Houston by midday Tuesday. Edouard is expected to make landfall by early Tuesday afternoon, bringing widespread locally heavy rain through Tuesday evening’s commute. Downpours should dissipate Tuesday evening as Edouard’s remnants move northward towards Dallas-Fort Worth.
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Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour could quickly overwhelm streets and drainage systems, especially where the heaviest rain bands set up. Additionally, recent hot and dry weather could mean more heavy rain runs off into the bayou network instead of soaking into the soil.
Winds: Gusty winds are also expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as Edouard makes its closest pass to Houston.
The area most likely to see tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be along the immediate coast to about Interstate 10 east of Harris County. Here, wind gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph at times, with gusts at times possibly reaching close to 60 mph. For those living along the coast, basic storm preparations like removing yard debris and securing items like outdoor furniture and trash bins should be sufficient measures.
STAY INFORMED: Track Texas power outages in real-time with the Houston Chronicle’s interactive tracker.
For the rest of Southeast Texas, wind gusts are likely to remain below 30 mph except in the heaviest rain bands.
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Some isolated power outages will be possible, especially in coastal areas.
Storm surge: While flooding from locally heavy rain will be the primary concern associated with Edouard, storm surge flooding will be possible.
The highest surge will be found from High Island east toward the southern Louisiana coast where 1 to 3 feet of surge could inundate normally dry coastal areas. From San Luis Pass to High Island, including Galveston, storm surge of 1 to 2 feet is expected.
This forecast could change somewhat over the next 24 hours or so as track and intensity details become more clear. Continue monitoring the forecast as the Houston Chronicle provides updates.
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