The World Meteorological Organization is sounding a much louder alarm over El Niño, saying the weather pattern is firmly established and could become one of the strongest events seen in decades.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said.
“The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
The WMO said Thursday there is an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” El Niño will persist through February 2027, with the event expected to strengthen further and peak toward the end of 2026.
TOPSHOT – World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo (L) and WMO Chief of climate prediction section Wilfran Moufouma-Okia attend a press conference on El Nino update, in Geneva on September 3, 2026. El Nino is set to become “very strong” in the months ahead, with the weather phenomenon near certain to persist through to February, the United Nations’ climate agency warned. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP via Getty Images) (FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)
That matters for Texas because El Niño can shift rainfall and temperature patterns across the Southern U.S., potentially setting the stage for a much wetter winter. But there’s an important catch: A strong El Niño does not mean every place will get the same weather.
“The strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country or region,” the WMO said. “Its effects vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers.”
For Texas, early signs already point to a wetter cool season.
John Nielsen-Gammon, a Texas A&M University atmospheric sciences professor, recently told Chron he puts the odds of Texas having a wetter-than-normal cool season at about 90 percent from October through April. He said El Niño is expected to bring a stronger, farther-south jet stream that could send more storm systems into the state.
This photograph shows presentation slide displayed during a press conference on El Nino update by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in Geneva on September 3, 2026. El Nino is set to become “very strong” in the months ahead, with the weather phenomenon near certain to persist through to February, the United Nations’ climate agency warned. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP via Getty Images) (FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)
For Houston, that could mean more clouds and steady rain rather than a parade of cold fronts. Nielsen-Gammon told Chron the city has a 10 to 15 percent chance of breaking its October-through-April rainfall record.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Texans should start stocking up on snow shovels.
El Niño generally favors cooler conditions across Texas, but Nielsen-Gammon put the odds of a cooler-than-normal October-through-April period at about 50-50 for the state. He also cautioned that strong El Niño events don’t necessarily produce more snow in Central and South Texas because significant snow still requires a strong blast of Arctic air.
The WMO’s latest update puts even more emphasis on preparedness worldwide, warning that a very strong El Niño can increase the risk of extreme heat, flooding and drought in different parts of the world. The organization said the event could produce climate impacts well into 2027.
This is a significant shift from where forecasts stood earlier this summer. In June, Chron reported that forecasters were still debating how strong El Niño might become. By Aug. 30, the question had shifted toward what a potentially “super” El Niño could mean for Texas.
Now the WMO says El Niño is expected to become very strong and has launched what it calls an unprecedented mobilization to prepare for the event.
More Weather
Heat | ‘Worst humidity ever’: Texans suffer through sticky heat blast
Summer | Texas on alert as ‘super’ El Niño threat grows more powerful
Damage | Half-dollar-sized hail, high winds threaten Texas Panhandle
Forecast | Tropical system looks like it’ll avoid most of Texas
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This article originally published at El Niño could become one of the strongest ever. Texas is watching.