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AUSTIN, TX – SEPTEMBER 05: Quarterback Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns tosses the ball during warm ups ahead of the college football game the Texas Longhorns and the Texas State Bobcats on September 5, 2026, at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

That was the number one question on my mind when I turned on the Texas Longhorns’ opening game of the 2026 season against No. 85 Texas State.

Yes.

A little.

I walked away from Manning’s 2025 game film by putting a second-round grade on him. He’d clearly regressed from his 2023-2024 game film when I gave him a first-round grade.

In what ways had Manning regressed?

-Didn’t look comfortable

-Wasn’t able to build chemistry with his receivers

-Struggled on throws beyond his first read.

These were the things I was paying close attention to as the tape began playing.

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The first thing that popped

He looked more comfortable operating the Longhorns’ offense in the opener.

It stood out.

I wrote it down in my notes. His movements were crisper and more fluid-looking.

Receivers

It was also noticeable that he had BETTER chemistry with this group of receivers.

The flow was better. There was more cohesion.

That’s another plus.

Shaky beyond his first read

I charted Manning going 8/11 on his second-read throws. At face value, that sounds pretty good. However, several of those were short passes (0-9 yards).

He still doesn’t look that comfortable on throws beyond his first read. I noted a tendency to try to use too much of his upper body and to attempt to aim and steer the ball rather than relying on an equally distributed upper and lower body release. It also seemed like he had a tendency to tense up more on throws beyond his first read.

In his defense⎯

Manning’s best throw of the game vs. Texas State came on a second-read throw.

I’m just not sold on it yet.

Any other areas of interest in this game?

4/4 on deep throws (+20 air yards)

Time to throw

Ball placement was better

Didn’t allow himself to get over-crowded in the pocket

Wore his heart on his sleeve

Ball security woes

Hard locking with targets (big NFL no-no)

Nothing has changed since last season when it comes to his deep game⎯

The strongest part of Manning’s 2025 tape was his deep accuracy. Still is.

How about his time to throw?

It was identical in the opener to 2025: 2.88 seconds (Pro Football Focus).

Manning’s ball placement looked better against Texas State. That probably has something to do with the fact that he seemed more comfortable, relaxed, and confident in this game. His footwork was improved.

He also had better pocket awareness.

Another thing that hasn’t changed since last season⎯

You don’t have to guess how Manning is feeling. He’s still pretty moody. His emotions are obviously up when things are going well and visibly down when they’re not.

That’s a very real concern for me.

Manning’s body language is “too Caleb Williams” for me. Williams is the emotional roller coaster who plays quarterback for the Bears. When I think back to watching former NFL quarterbacks Peyton and Eli Manning, I think of emotionally consistent leaders.

As the leader goes, so goes the team.

Ball security remains a concern for me as well. Manning had two passes broken up and one ugly-looking interception. Last season, I wasn’t impressed with this area of Manning’s game (2025: 2.23 pass breakups per game average and seven interceptions). One of the pass breakups and the interception against Texas State were really bad throwing decisions.

Additionally⎯

I’m not a fan of how Manning needs to lock in with his targets for an extra noticeable moment before throwing. The last thing NFL defenders need is an extra second or two to get into position.

NFL takeaway

When I watched Manning against Texas State, he looked like a work in progress.

It seemed from the telecast that he had good self-awareness of his issues last season, and they also talked about how the game had slowed down for him.

Good signs.

Another positive was that I noticed something about Manning I had not noticed before. Seven times, Manning was able to hold defenders with his eyes to create more space for his intended receiver. I really liked that.

However⎯

There’s still room for improvement from an NFL perspective.

Daniel Kelly is a former NFL Scout with the New York Jets. He was hired on the regime which featured Bill Parcells, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Mike Tannenbaum, and Dick Haley. He is currently the Editor-in-Chief for First Round Mock, and has written for Sports Illustrated (Lions, Jets, and 49ers), NFL Draft Diamonds, and Yardbarker, as well as appearing as a guest on ESPN Radio, Fox Sports Radio, and Fearless with Jason Whitlock. Featured in USA Today. For more information, visit whateverittakesbook.com. Follow on Twitter @firstroundmock.