AUSTIN, Texas — Over year after Gov. Greg Abbott signed a new congressional district map into law, uncertainty is growing about how much of an advantage it will actually provide the Republican party.
The map was initially thought by some to be enough to add a net gain of five Republican congressional seats in the state. Recent polling, however, suggests GOP wins in some districts may not be as likely.
In August, a survey by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found a Democratic advantage in several South Texas races, including in areas which President Donald Trump carried in the 2024 election.
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Its results reveal in the redrawn TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34, Democratic candidates are leading among voters.
“We’re seeing a return of many South Texas Hispanic voters to Democratic candidates,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University and co-author of the report. “They never left in terms of staunchly identifying as Republicans. It just shows that this is an electorate that finds itself in a position where the Democratic party nationally is too far to the left, but the Republican party is often too far the right.”
Jones believes Republicans may pick up anywhere from one to three seats in Texas, but not the five some had originally expected.
The controversial redistricting effort passed during a special session in 2025 after a first attempt was interrupted by a quorum break by Texas House Democrats. Democrats ultimately returned to the state in August and the bill passed.
Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser said current economic conditions may play a role in the challenges Republican candidates face in November.
“The goal was to pick up more seats. That was the part of the plan with the redistricting effort that occurred a while back. But I think that given that political headwinds nationally, what’s going on with the economy and affordability, it’s definitely going to be a challenge,” Steinhauser said.
Kendall Scudder, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, told CBS Austin on Wednesday that the party is leading efforts in all corners of the state to garner support for Democratic candidates.
“What is happening is they tried to steal five seats, they aren’t going to get them, and I think they’re going to be struggling to get their hands on three of the five,” Scudder said. “We are not going let any of them go without a fight. “
The updated congressional map is available to view here.