The list of teams that still have a realistic shot to make the College Football Playoff is getting shorter and shorter as we get further into November.
There’s a chance this year’s edition of the 12-team playoff has quite a bit of Texas representation. Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Texas, SMU, Houston and even North Texas are right in the mix as Week 12 approaches.
Here are each of those team’s paths to the College Football Playoff heading into the final stretch.
Plenty of room for error
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Texas A&M and Texas Tech appear to be squarely in the College Football Playoff field. In fact, it’s reasonable for both fan bases to be looking beyond the idea of just making it and instead start dreaming of doing some serious damage in the playoff.
Texas A&M currently sits at 9-0 and was No. 3 in last week’s College Football Playoff rankings. The Aggies’ three remaining games include a pair of home games against an ailing South Carolina team and Samford before finishing the regular season with a trip to Austin to face Texas. If the Aggies were to hypothetically lose to both South Carolina and Texas, they’d still probably make the 12-team field with a 10-2 record. For all intents and purposes, they’re in. FanDuel isn’t even offering odds on A&M to make the playoff anymore, and instead is only offering a longshot for the Aggies to miss the playoff at +5000 odds.
Texas Tech’s spot in the field isn’t as safe as A&M’s given that the Red Raiders have a loss on their ledger. Texas Tech, which checked in at No. 8 in last week’s CFP rankings and will surely move up after beating No. 7 BYU, finishes up its regular season schedule with a home game against UCF and road game against West Virginia. If Tech handles its business against those two teams, the Red Raiders would be all but assured a playoff spot regardless of what happens in the Big 12 championship game. FanDuel is currently offering the Red Raiders at -1200 odds to make the playoff and +680 to miss it.
Need to win out … or do they?
Texas checked in at No. 11 in last week’s CFP ranking with a 7-2 record. The Longhorns, who are coming off a bye week, are set to visit No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night.
Getting to a 10-2 record has generally been considered the benchmark to make the 12-team playoff field, but could that change this year? The playoff committee is now emphasizing strength of schedule more than it has in the past, meaning you don’t get punished as much for losing to top teams. Texas’ final three games include matchups on the road against Georgia and at home against Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M.
Say the Longhorns split their matchups with Georgia and Texas A&M and handle business at home against Arkansas. The committee has Texas at No. 11 currently and is now emphasizing strength of schedule. Could a 9-3 Texas team with key wins over one of Georgia or Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt get in? Texas’ three losses in that scenario would be to one of Georgia or A&M, at No. 1 Ohio State and at Florida.
If the Longhorns are able to beat one of Georgia or Texas A&M, there will be a conversation to be had about three-loss Texas being in the mix for an at-large bid. FanDuel currently offers Texas at +194 odds to make it with -245 odds to miss the CFP.
Down to automatic bids
There’s not nearly as much nuance to SMU and Houston’s respective paths into the CFP given their chances at an at-large bid evaporated a while ago.
It’s simple: win your conference championship. Houston sits at 8-2 with a 5-2 conference record. Its final two games are at home against TCU and on the road against Baylor. The Cougars also need quite a bit of help to get into Big 12 championship game, and even if they did somehow sneak in via tiebreakers, the same Texas Tech team that blew them out on Oct. 4 would likely await them in the title game. FanDuel is currently offering Houston at +10000 odds to win the Big 12.
On the other hand, a return trip to the ACC title game seems more realistic each week for SMU due to the ACC’s dearth of quality teams. There are five teams with one loss in ACC play atop the standings. If SMU wins its final two games against Louisville and California, the door is open for the Mustangs to sneak back into the ACC championship game. SMU doesn’t control its own destiny, but it doesn’t need a ton of help to get into the conference championship game.
Of note, FanDuel is currently offering SMU at +710 odds to make the CFP and only +450 odds to win the ACC. Sportsbooks listing SMU’s ACC title odds and CFP odds at different prices suggests a disaster scenario exists for the ACC: Could the ACC champion not even be one of the five highest ranked conference champions? With James Madison on a roll out of the Sun Belt and several teams in the mix for the American Conference championship, it’s a scenario that’s on the table.
You can read more about the messy ACC standings and possible tiebreakers that await SMU here.
Group of Five dream
North Texas in the College Football Playoff? Prepare yourself for that possibility.
The Mean Green are squarely in the mix for the American title race, thus putting them in the mix for a possible auto-bid to the CFP. North Texas finishes its schedule with a three-game stretch against UAB, Rice and Temple, with the first two of those being on the road.
UNT is one of five teams with one conference loss in the American, but has the second-best odds to win the conference on FanDuel. South Florida at +115 and North Texas at +185 lead the way before a sizable gap to Tulane with the third-best odds at +470. If the Mean Green handle business, they could get a second crack at South Florida in the title game.
North Texas’ odds to make the CFP are a little longer than its +185 American championship odds, checking in at +220. This means that even if UNT wins its conference, there would be some anxious times in Denton waiting to see if the Mean Green are one of the five the highest-ranked conference champions.
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