Our old friend, the “Old Farmer’s Almanac,” has once again released this year’s winter weather predictions. This time of year signals the end of this year’s dreaded summer heat – if we suspend disbelief.
About this time last year, we told you what the trusty tome said was in store for Texas winter. Now, the “Almanac” may not be everyone’s first choice for weather predictions, but sometimes it just gets it right.
Since 1792, the “Almanac” has been predicting weather based on solar science, climatology, meteorology, historical weather patterns, climate data and more.
Last year, it fell short on its promise of November snow, but the rest of the predictions were pretty accurate. Let’s look at what’s in store for North Texas this winter.
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Winter predictions
Texas and Oklahoma are set for a warmer, drier winter, apparently. The short, to-the-point forecast says to watch for snow in the new year.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal compared to previous winters. With above-average temps paired with below-normal precipitation, Dallas could miss its usual ice storm. However, early January and early February have the greatest chance of snowfall.
As with last year, January and early February are expected to be the coldest months of the season. North Texas saw measurable amounts of snow and ice in January.
What’s shaping the winter weather
This year’s El Niño is expected to continue through winter. El Niño, which relates to ocean temperatures, is stronger this year than most. Warm ocean temperatures can shift the jet stream, a fast-moving river of air that steers storms, and affect where precipitation and colder air travel across North America.
The “Almanac” says strong El Niño winters favor milder temperatures, but this is only one piece of this season’s winter puzzle. The forecast takes solar activity, wind patterns and the Polar Vortex into account while predicting weather patterns.