Welcome back to another special edition of Three Reasons Why, as TCU football finally begins Big 12 play with its showdown at Central Florida at 2:30 p.m. Saturday on FS1.

Both teams enter their conference opener with 2-1 records after disappointing non-conference losses to ACC opponents. Winning the opener would allow either team to build momentum for the league title race while distancing themselves from those defeats.

TCU has some momentum with a two-game winning streak and a quarterback who has gotten more comfortable each week. UCF has more question marks with a backup quarterback leading the offense, but the Knights have one of the nation’s most explosive running backs and home-field advantage.

All signs point to this one being a matchup that could come down to the wire. Sportsbooks have the Horned Frogs pegged as 3.5-point favorites.

Here are three reasons why TCU will begin league play on a high note or suffer a disappointing loss to the Knights:

Three reasons TCU will defeat UCF

1. The return of Jordan Dwyer: TCU had to make do in non-conference play without its best wide receiver, senior Jordan Dwyer, but the explosive wideout is expected to be available against the Knights, TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has said. Dwyer was listed as questionable on the Big 12 player availability report, but Dykes said earlier in the week that most people wouldn’t be able to tell that Dwyer was dealing with a nagging foot injury and that he expects him to play.

With his return, TCU will have one of the most productive receivers from a year ago after Dwyer finished second on the team with 730 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s capable of taking the top off of defenses and making contested catches in tight windows, the exact type of weapon quarterback Jaden Craig needs. His presence alone should attract plenty of attention from the Knights, which will only help to open up the passing game.

2. D-line makes a statement: Dating back to last season, the strength of TCU’s defense has been its ability to stop the run. So far that has continued this season. The Horned Frogs rank fifth in the Big 12 in rushing defense, allowing only 79.3 yards on the ground per game while holding opponents to 2.7 yards per carry.

UCF has an explosive rushing attack, but the Knights also have an offensive line that is in flux, while TCU brought back most of its two-deep from last season with the expectation of having one of the league’s best fronts. If the defensive line can keep UCF in check on the ground, TCU could cruise to a victory.

3. QB advantage: TCU should have the edge under center with Craig going up against UCF backup quarterback Keyone Jenkins. Starter Alonza Barnett, a transfer from James Madison, was ruled out for Saturday with a hamstring injury he endured in a 12-7 Week 2 loss to Pittsburgh. In his lone start last week, Jenkins struggled against the Georgia State secondary with just 86 yards, an interception and an ESPN QBR rating of 27.0 out of 100. He did have a passing touchdown and two rushing scores.

Jenkins does have multiple starts at the FBS level from his time at Florida International, but there are clear limitations with him as a passer. Meanwhile, Craig has looked vastly improved from the Week 0 loss to North Carolina, posting back-to-back 300-yard games. He won’t need to do that against the Knights, he’ll just need to be more productive than Jenkins, which he’s more than capable of doing.

Three reasons UCF will defeat TCU

1. Home cooking: The Horned Frogs have only played one game away from Amon G. Carter Stadium this season, and that was the team’s underwhelming performance in a 15-10 loss to North Carolina in Dublin in Week 0. That was a neutral-site game with more TCU fans than North Carolina fans, so how will TCU respond on the road at the Bounce House?

UCF’s home-field advantage hasn’t been as strong as it was during its run in the American Conference, but it’s still early enough in the season for UCF’s massive student body to be fully engaged. TCU’s communication and discipline will be tested on the road, and if the Horned Frogs fail those tests, they could lose.

2. UCF makes TCU one-dimensional: Arkansas State exposed a potential flaw in TCU’s run game with the Red Wolves using defensive stunts to fluster the Horned Frogs’ wide zone rushing attack. North Carolina also had some success in the second half with the same strategy. It’s on film now that TCU’s offensive line struggles with movement up front, and UCF is sure to use the same concepts to take away junior running back Jeremy Payne.

The Knights’ defensive line is a question mark, but UCF has better personnel up front than Arkansas State. If Payne has to work as hard for his yards as he did against Arkansas State, that’ll only put more pressure on Craig, who could be traveling to the most hostile environment he’s played in.

3. Duke is too dynamic: While TCU’s run defense has been elite so far, the unit also hasn’t faced a running back as explosive as UCF’s Duke Watson. Watson is third in the country in yards per carry (11.0) with 297 yards and three touchdowns on just 27 carries. He had 60-plus-yard runs against Bethune-Cookman and Georgia State.

Watson is the definition of a game-changer, especially if he gets into the open field. He’s also backed up by former Keller Fossil Ridge standout Landen Chambers, who has rushed for 118 yards and is averaging 7.9 yards per carry.

TCU’s run defense vs. UCF’s rushing attack will be a battle of strength vs. strength, and it’s imperative for TCU to come out on top in that matchup, considering that UCF will be using a backup quarterback.

Game schedule dates, times, locations Sept. 22 New York Mets 6, Rangers 3 Sept. 23 New York Mets 7, Rangers 2 Sept. 24 Rangers 3, New York Mets 1 Sept. 25 Minnesota 10, Rangers 2 Sept. 26 Rangers 6, Minnesota 2 Sept. 27 at Minnesota, 2:10 p.m., RSN End of the regular season Sept. 17 Wings 97, Los Angeles 77 Sept. 19 Wings 87, Phoenix 82 Sept. 21 Phoenix 87, Wings 86 Sept. 23 Wings 103, Seattle 91 WNBA playoffs First-round series (best-of-3) Game 1: Sept. 27 at Golden State, 8 p.m., USA, CNBC Game 2: Sept. 30 vs. Golden State, 8 p.m., ESPN Game 3 (if necessary): Oct. 2 at Golden State, TBD Sept. 13 N.Y. Giants 28, Cowboys 20 Sept. 20 Cowboys 37, Washington 20 Sept. 27 vs. Baltimore (at Rio de Janeiro), 3:25 p.m., CBS Oct. 4 at Houston, 12 p.m., Fox Oct. 8 vs. Tampa Bay, 7:15 p.m., Amazon Prime Video Oct. 18 at Green Bay, 7:20 p.m., NBC Oct. 26 at Philadelphia, 7:15 p.m., ESPN, ABC Nov. 1 vs. Arizona, 12 p.m., Fox Nov. 8 at Indianapolis, 12 p.m., Fox Nov. 15 vs. San Francisco, 3:25 p.m., Fox Nov. 22 vs. Tennessee, 12 p.m., Fox Nov. 26 vs. Philadelphia, 3:30 p.m., Fox Dec. 7 at Seattle, 7:15 p.m., ESPN, ABC Dec. 20 at L.A. Rams, 3:25 p.m., CBS Dec. 27 vs. Jacksonville, 7:20 p.m., NBC Jan. 3 vs. N.Y. Giants, 12 p.m., Fox Jan. 9 or 10 at Washington, TBA Aug. 29 North Carolina 15, TCU 10 Sept. 12 TCU 63, Grambling State 7 Sept. 19 TCU 31, Arkansas State 7 Sept. 26 Central Florida 21, TCU 13 Oct. 3 vs. BYU, 6 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2 Oct. 17 at Baylor, TBA Oct. 24 vs. West Virginia, TBA Oct. 31 vs. Kansas, TBA Nov. 6 at Arizona, 9:15 p.m., ESPN Nov. 14 vs. Kansas State, TBA Nov. 21 vs. Utah, TBA Nov. 26 at Texas Tech, 7 p.m., ESPN Sept. 5 Indiana 52, North Texas 16 Sept. 12 North Texas 44, UNLV 6 Sept. 19 Texas State 49, North Texas 35 Sept. 26 North Texas 63, Houston Christian 14 Oct. 1 at Tulsa, 8 p.m., ESPN Oct. 10 vs. Charlotte, TBA Oct. 24 at Navy, 2:30 p.m. CBSSN Oct. 29 vs. Florida Atlantic, 6:30 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2 Nov. 7 vs. Rice, TBA Nov. 14 at UTSA, TBA Nov. 21 at Tulane, TBA Nov. 28 vs. UAB, TBA All home games at Crowley ISD Multi-Purpose Stadium Aug. 27 Central Oklahoma 59, Texas Wesleyan 7 Sept. 5 McNeese State 52, Texas Wesleyan 0 Sept. 12 Texas Wesleyan 56, Texas College 20 Sept. 26 Texas Wesleyan 41, Nelson 16 Oct. 3 at Arkansas Baptist, 2 p.m. Oct. 10 at Louisiana Christian, 2 p.m. Oct. 17 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 1 p.m. Oct. 24 at Langston, 2 p.m. Oct. 31 vs. Oklahoma Panhandle State, 2 p.m. Nov. 7 at Ottawa (Arizona), 6 p.m. Nov. 14 at Wayland Baptist, 2 p.m. Sept. 5 FC Dallas 4, Kansas City 3 Sept. 9 FC Dallas 2, Minnesota 1 Sept. 12 FC Dallas 2, Portland 1 Sept. 19 FC Dallas 0, Austin 0 Sept. 26 FC Dallas 1, LAFC 0 Oct. 10 at Charlotte, 6:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 14 vs. Seattle, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 17 at Houston, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 24 vs. San Jose, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 28 vs. Columbus, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 1-3 Dirt Track Championship Oct. 2-3 Goodguys Lone Star Nationals Oct. 14 Tony Stewart Bowling Tournament Oct. 16-17 High Limit Racing Championship Oct. 29-31 POWRi Racing

This story was originally published September 25, 2026 at 5:00 AM.

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