Ken Paxton and James Talarico (AP)
Democrat James Talarico continues to hold a narrow advantage over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ closely watched U.S. Senate contest, according to a new BIG DATA POLL survey released Sunday.
The new data comes as Republicans pour tens of millions of dollars into a race rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
The Sept. 24-26 survey found Talarico leading Paxton 43.6% to 39.3% among registered voters and 44.6% to 41.6% among likely voters.
After undecided voters were pressed to choose a candidate, Talarico’s advantage narrowed to roughly two points among both groups — 46.4% to 43.8% among registered voters and 46.8% to 44.9% among likely voters.
The poll’s overall sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.
The survey also points to an intensely engaged electorate.
Among voters describing themselves as “extremely enthusiastic” about voting, Paxton narrowly leads Talarico 48.2% to 47.5%.
Among likely voters most certain to cast a ballot, Paxton holds an even smaller 46.7% to 46.5% edge.
Talarico, however, has a three-to-one advantage among voters who backed the opposite party in 2024, 15.6% to 4.9%.
The findings broadly track other recent polling.
The RealClearPolling average has Talarico at 47.6% and Paxton at 44.6%, a three-point Democrat advantage.
Recent individual surveys have shown Talarico ahead by margins ranging from one to six points.
The Cook Political Report moved the Texas Senate contest from lean Republican to toss-up in August, citing public and private polling showing a race more competitive than Texas’ underlying Republican lean would ordinarily suggest.
One potential warning sign for Republicans is Hispanic support. A Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision survey found Talarico leading Paxton 63% to 30% among likely Hispanic voters, including 73% support among Hispanic independents.
Money has increasingly become central to the contest.
Talarico’s campaign reported raising $72 million since the beginning of 2025 through June compared with $16.8 million for Paxton, according to figures compiled by The Texas Tribune.
Republican outside groups have since moved aggressively to close the spending gap.
“Republicans were grossly outspent prior to Labor Day, and now they have unleashed tens of millions of dollars in the Lone Star State in the final weeks of the campaign to try to close the gap,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said.
That spending surge is substantial. Republican-aligned advertisers spent $62 million supporting Paxton during the first 18 days of September compared with $17 million supporting Talarico, according to AdImpact figures reported by The Wall Street Journal.
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