Long-range forecasting has long been the bane of meteorologists’ existence. Extreme predictions, coupled with weather shifts that are essentially impossible to track months in advance, have led to proverbial eye rolls from local weather forecasters across Texas. And now, the two largest long-range forecasters can’t agree on the next four months — not exactly a ringing endorsement of seasonal forecasting.
For weeks, experts have warned of a particularly chilly and active fall and winter season across the South. As the subtropical jet stream is pushed south toward Texas, overcast skies and colder days – even a higher risk of snow – are expected as the strongest El Niño takes shape.
“When the colder air meets abundant moisture, some storms could produce sleet, freezing rain, or heavy snow,” the Farmers’ Almanac states, pointing to a frigid and stormy line from southern California to Texas.
Yet the Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been pedaling its weather predictions since 1792, has Texas pegged for a mild, dry winter. That not only contradicts the competitor but also every alarm sounded by the National Weather Service, historic data, and both local and national meteorologists.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for above-normal temperatures, rainfall totals that are below average and near-normal snowfall, likely in the Northern metros.
“A warmer, drier winter is expected in the Texas-Oklahoma region. There is a chance of snow in the new year, so keep an eye on the forecast,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac winter 2026-27 forecast states.
This doesn’t exactly align with historical data. Historically, an El Niño means a colder, wetter, and possibly even snowy winter and spring. But it also increases severe weather risk, according to the National Weather Service.
Historical data compiled over the past 70 years show that Texas has, for the most part, seen average temperatures dip between November and April during strong El Niño events. Sometimes, this can be by as much as 5 degrees on average. Texas seems to see a drastic dip in temperatures compared with a non-El Niño year at some point between fall and winter, though it can come earlier or later in the season.
That cooler weather is also often accompanied by heavier precipitation during strong El Niño events. According to a National Weather Service outlook, rain chances spiked during strong El Niño events, along with severe weather reports.