Houston-area birthrates are falling along with fertility rates across the country, a new Rice University Kinder Institute report finds. The decline reflects a broader nationwide trend imposed by economic pressures and shifting cultural norms.
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Houston-area birthrates have fallen sharply over the last two decades, a new report finds, drawing implications that could reshape the region’s schools and workforce.
The recently released report from Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research analyzed demographic data from Houston’s five largest counties: Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Montgomery and Galveston from 2003 to 2024.
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Among the five counties, Brazoria saw the most dramatic decline, down 32 percent, followed by Harris County at 29 percent.
The findings mirror a nationwide trend of declining fertility rates as women increasingly choose to wait later in life to have children or have none at all.
“Demographic change often happens gradually, but its effects can be felt for decades. Fewer births today mean fewer children entering schools in the years ahead and fewer young adults entering the workforce later on,” said Karen Goolsby, co-author of the study and a researcher with the Houston Population Research Center.
In Houston, however, the drop comes while the city’s population soars with people increasingly choosing to move here, creating a unique, and potentially complicated way to forecast what the changes mean for the region in the years to come.
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“Houston’s continued population growth adds another piece to the demographic puzzle. Even as fertility has declined, people moving into the region have helped sustain its growth, making migration increasingly important to Houston’s population trajectory,” wrote Rice University Public Affairs journalist Kat Cosley Trigg.
American Family Survey utilized responses from roughly 3,000 individuals in 2025 to determine top barriers to having children today.
screenshot/American Family Survey
Localizing the decline
Utilizing data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2003 to 2024, the report examined declining birth rates for all five counties, as well as a shift in the age women are having children.
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Brazoria County: birth rates declined by 32%, from 2.5 births per woman in 2003 to 1.7 in 2024
Harris County: birth rates declined by 29.2%, from 2.4 births per woman in 2003 to 1.7 births in 2024.
Fort Bend County: birth rates declined by 28.6%, from 2.1 births per woman in 2003 to 1.5 births in 2024
Montgomery County: birth rates declined by 17.4%, from 2.3 births per woman in 2003 to 1.9 births in 2026.
Montgomery County had the smallest decline among the four counties. The Houston-area declines were also steeper than broader state and national trends. During the same period, Texas saw a 21 percent decline in its total fertility rate, while the national rate fell 20 percent.
Why are fertility rates dropping?
Research shows that there are a combination of factors contributing to low rates, including economic pressures, expanded work and education opportunities for women, and increased access to family planning tools.
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According to a 2025 American Family Survey poll, 43 percent of respondents said “insufficient money” was the largest barrier towards having children, doubling the response rate of people citing “lack of personal desire”.
The report additionally reveals that affordability related concerns towards having children is up by 20 percent compared to responses from 2015.
The Rice report also points to a major shift in when women are having children.
Age-specific fertility rates show a “substantial shift in the timing of childbearing across the Houston metropolitan area,” according to the findings.
In addition to teen pregnancy, which decreased by 70 percent since 2003 in Houston, fertility rates have also dropped for women aged 20 to 24.
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At the same time, fertility rates spiked among women 35 to 44 years of age.
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The data reflects a shifting landscape in motherhood. Today, more women have access to higher education and workforce opportunities than twenty years ago, causing a delay in the age range of starting a family. This also overlaps with a broader array of planning tools such as egg freezing and in vitro fertilization becoming more readily available, making the pattern of postponement more feasible.
“Those numbers reveal more than fewer births, said the researchers. They point to a broader change in how families are forming across the greater Houston area,” wrote Trigg.