As TCU football sits at a crossroads during its bye week, the Horned Frogs have less than two weeks to fix an offense that has been one of the biggest disappointments in college football.
The Horned Frogs (2-3, 0-2 Big 12) averaged 30.7 points per game last season, ranking 40th nationally in the final season under offensive coordinator Kendal Briles before he departed for South Carolina. Starting quarterback Josh Hoover also left the program for Indiana.
Some regression was expected with the arrival of offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis from UConn and Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig. But what’s occurred through the first five games of the season has been the worst-case scenario for TCU head coach Sonny Dykes.
The raw numbers are enough to paint a picture of how dire things are. The Horned Frogs rank 91st nationally in scoring offense, 15th out of 16 team Big 12 teams in sacks allowed and 16th in rushing. It’s hard to win games producing like that, even when you have a defense that ranks No. 13 nationally in scoring defense.
But what’s been the cause of the lack of production? Is it just Craig not being able to make the transition from the Ivy League to the Big 12? Is it all on the offensive line, or a lack of creativity by Sammis?
Using HUDL IQ, the Star-Telegram took a deeper look at some of the problems the Horned Frogs have faced offensively. Here’s what we found:
Lack of running success
Sammis was supposed to provide an immediate impact in the run game. His pro-style offense with more tight ends was supposed to make TCU more physical, and Sammis also brought in a reputation for developing offensive linemen.
He has more talent at TCU than he had at UConn, but the success hasn’t translated. Why? It starts with an offensive line that seems to have taken a step back under Sammis.
The Horned Frogs are running the ball at about the same rate as last year under Briles, with analytics website FourthandShort.com having TCU running the ball 47.6% of the time this season compared to 46.2% last year.
But despite the new scheme, the run game is struggling with the same things the offense did last year.
Success rate measures whether a play gained enough yards for an offense to stay on schedule depending on down and distance. In simpler terms, gaining five yards on first-and-10 is considered successful, but gaining three is not, etc. TCU ranks 72nd nationally in success rate when rushing, a drop from 61st under Briles.
One reason the Horned Frogs are getting these results in the lack of winning at the line of scrimmage, though the numbers, while below average, show a slight improvement from last season.
Stuff rate measures how often a run attempt was stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. TCU ranks 81st (110th last year). Line yards measures how successful an offensive line is at moving defenders off the line of scrimmage. The Horned Frogs rank 99th (113th last year).
The simplest takeaway from this data is that TCU is allowing far too many negative plays and being stonewalled by opposing defensive lines.
According to HUDL IQ, TCU is below average at nearly every spot on the offensive line when it comes to yards gained outside of right guard, usually manned by Oklahoma State transfer Noah McKinney.
The lack of success up front makes life harder for junior running back Jeremy Payne, who has gained more than half of his yards against Power Four competition after first contact. In TCU’s three losses, 11% of Payne’s runs have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. The fact that Payne still managed a 50% success rate speaks to his talent.
Expected points added (EPA) measures the value of a single play by calculating how much it changes a team’s likelihood of scoring. As a runner Payne has a negative EPA of -.014 compared to his positive EPA of 0.09 last season.
No matter how you slice it, the raw and advanced numbers tell the same story: TCU has regressed in its running game.
TCU quarterback Jaden Craig calls out the play during the first half against BYU on Saturday, Oct. 3, at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. Abigail Dollins Fort Worth Star-Telegram A deeper look at Jaden Craig
Craig wasn’t brought in to be better than Hoover, but the hope was that Craig could be efficient and limit turnovers while also providing a new element to the offense with his athleticism. So far Craig hasn’t been able to do either despite being ranking 13th nationally and second in the Big 12 in passing yards with 1,400.
Those big numbers are undermined by his four turnovers in the three losses, and he’s only thrown one touchdown against Power Four defenses. Those numbers are enough to be alarming, but the advanced numbers give even more context.
Craig was sensational against Grambling State and Arkansas State, producing a total passing EPA of 32 on his dropbacks. But against Power Four defenses, the numbers plummet.
Against North Carolina, Central Florida and BYU, Craig produced a negative pass EPA of -17.5. He also hasn’t had success impacting the game with his legs, with a rushing EPA of -3.4 on his scrambles in those three games.
TCU is putting up plenty of yards, but not turning them into points, and it’s not all on Craig’s shoulders. TCU’s pass protection has been spotty, with 6.5% of Craig’s dropbacks resulting in sacks and 10.5% resulting in quarterback pressures.
TCU’s offensive line is performing below average in terms of allowing quarterback pressures, except against the defenders lined up over left guard, manned by senior Cooper Powers.
Craig was supposed to just steer the offense in the right direction, but the lack of pass protection and a run game has forced him into a position where he’s had to try to elevate the offense. As of right now, that’s too much to ask of the former Ivy League quarterback.
As for how he stacks up against notable quarterbacks nationwide, HUDL IQ identified SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings as the most similar to Craig. Craig had a per-play pass EPA of .10 and a success rate of 50.3%, while Jennings is at .41 and 59.6%.
Hoover has an EPA of .52 and a success rate of 56.3%, while Miami quarterback Darian Mensah is at .68 and 67.7%. Even among Big 12 quarterbacks, Craig’s efficiency numbers lag behind players like Arizona’s Noah Fifita and Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker.
There are no easy fixes for TCU’s offensive woes with an offensive line that is performing below average in nearly every category. Until TCU can find some success up front, Craig, Payne and the Horned Frogs’ other talented skill players won’t be able to flourish.
Game schedule dates, times, locations Sept. 13 N.Y. Giants 28, Cowboys 20 Sept. 20 Cowboys 37, Washington 20 Sept. 27 Baltimore 34, Cowboys 31 Oct. 4 Cowboys 34, Houston 30 Oct. 8 Tampa Bay 24, Cowboys 16 Oct. 18 at Green Bay, 7:20 p.m., NBC Oct. 26 at Philadelphia, 7:15 p.m., ESPN, ABC Nov. 1 vs. Arizona, 12 p.m., Fox Nov. 8 at Indianapolis, 12 p.m., Fox Nov. 15 vs. San Francisco, 3:25 p.m., Fox Nov. 22 vs. Tennessee, 12 p.m., Fox Nov. 26 vs. Philadelphia, 3:30 p.m., Fox Dec. 7 at Seattle, 7:15 p.m., ESPN, ABC Dec. 20 at L.A. Rams, 3:25 p.m., CBS Dec. 27 vs. Jacksonville, 7:20 p.m., NBC Jan. 3 vs. N.Y. Giants, 12 p.m., Fox Jan. 9 or 10 at Washington, TBA Aug. 29 North Carolina 15, TCU 10 Sept. 12 TCU 63, Grambling State 7 Sept. 19 TCU 31, Arkansas State 7 Sept. 26 Central Florida 21, TCU 13 Oct. 3 BYU 17, TCU 10 Oct. 17 at Baylor, 6 p.m., FS1 Oct. 24 vs. West Virginia, TBA Oct. 31 vs. Kansas, TBA Nov. 6 at Arizona, 9:15 p.m., ESPN Nov. 14 vs. Kansas State, TBA Nov. 21 vs. Utah, TBA Nov. 26 at Texas Tech, 7 p.m., ESPN Sept. 5 Indiana 52, North Texas 16 Sept. 12 North Texas 44, UNLV 6 Sept. 19 Texas State 49, North Texas 35 Sept. 26 North Texas 63, Houston Christian 14 Oct. 1 North Texas 45, Tulsa 44 (OT) Oct. 10 vs. Charlotte, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+ Oct. 24 at Navy, 2:30 p.m. CBSSN Oct. 29 vs. Florida Atlantic, 6:30 p.m., ESPN or ESPN2 Nov. 7 vs. Rice, TBA Nov. 14 at UTSA, TBA Nov. 21 at Tulane, TBA Nov. 28 vs. UAB, TBA All home games at Crowley ISD Multi-Purpose Stadium Aug. 27 Central Oklahoma 59, Texas Wesleyan 7 Sept. 5 McNeese State 52, Texas Wesleyan 0 Sept. 12 Texas Wesleyan 56, Texas College 20 Sept. 26 Texas Wesleyan 41, Nelson 16 Oct. 3 Texas Wesleyan 34, Arkansas Baptist 27 Oct. 10 at Louisiana Christian, 2 p.m. Oct. 17 vs. Mary Hardin-Baylor, 1 p.m. Oct. 24 at Langston, 2 p.m. Oct. 31 vs. Oklahoma Panhandle State, 2 p.m. Nov. 7 at Ottawa (Arizona), 6 p.m. Nov. 14 at Wayland Baptist, 2 p.m. Preseason Oct. 9 vs. Houston (at Macao), 7 a.m., MavsTV+, NBA TV Oct. 11 vs. Houston (at Macao), 5 a.m., MavsTV+, NBA TV Oct. 14 vs. New Orleans, 7 p.m., KFAA, MavsTV+, NBA TV Oct. 16 vs. Atlanta, 7 p.m., KFAA, MavsTV+ Regular season Oct. 21 at Houston, 7:30 p.m., TBA Oct. 23 at Indiana, 6 p.m., TBA Oct. 24 vs. San Antonio, 7 p.m., TBA Oct. 26 at Miami, 6:30 p.m., NBA TV Oct. 28 vs. Oklahoma City, 8:30 p.m., ESPN Oct. 2 St. Louis 4, Stars 0 Oct. 3 Nashville 2, Stars 1 Oct. 5 Stars 5, San Jose 0 Oct. 8 Stars 4, Buffalo 0 Oct. 10 at Pittsburgh, 6 p.m., Amazon Prime Video Oct. 13 vs. Colorado, 7:30 p.m., ESPN Oct. 14 at Colorado, 7:30 p.m., TNT, truTV, HBO Max Oct. 17 at Chicago, 6 p.m., Amazon Prime Video Oct. 20 vs. Boston, 7 p.m., ESPN Sept. 5 FC Dallas 4, Kansas City 3 Sept. 9 FC Dallas 2, Minnesota 1 Sept. 12 FC Dallas 2, Portland 1 Sept. 19 FC Dallas 0, Austin 0 Sept. 26 FC Dallas 1, LAFC 0 Oct. 10 at Charlotte, 6:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 14 vs. Seattle, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 17 at Houston, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 24 vs. San Jose, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 28 vs. Columbus, 7:30 p.m., Apple TV Oct. 14 Tony Stewart Bowling Tournament Oct. 16-17 High Limit Racing Championship Oct. 29-31 POWRi Racing Nov. 5-7 POWRi Racing Dec. 5 Team Texas: David Starr’s Racing School Dec. 12 NASCAR Racing Experience
This story was originally published October 9, 2026 at 5:00 AM.
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