Kirby Smart whipped out a catchphrase four years ago, before what would be the first of Georgia’s two straight national titles: “You’re either elite or you’re not.” Whether Smart coined it or borrowed it, the phrase caught on.
And this year, it could be applied to almost every team in the SEC. From a certain point of view, to quote a different kind of coach in Obi-Wan Kenobi.
You’re either in Playoff contention or not. At the midpoint of the SEC season, there are no in-betweens, unless you’re Mississippi State, which is this year’s Vanderbilt, having a feel-good comeback season, even if no one is realistically expecting a College Football Playoff.
As for this year’s Vanderbilt, we’re including it in the actual contender status. In a world where Indiana in two years can go from doormat to Playoff team to possible national champion, Vanderbilt can be fairly put in the Playoff conversation, until it plays itself out.
There are 10 such teams in the SEC, nine of which are either unbeaten or have just one loss, plus two-loss Texas, which no person of sane mind would rule out yet. There’s the above-mentioned Mississippi State. Then, there are five teams that have little to no chance to be elite, to the point they’re hopeless. Technically, a couple of them aren’t out of it yet, but realistically, it would take a miracle.
That’s the divide in the SEC in mid-October. And it’s why you may notice in the following midseason grades there are no C’s. Every team should be at least somewhat satisfied with its season, or very much not. (Including one of those teams still in CFP contention.)
These grades are done relative to preseason expectations, but are also a snapshot, leaning more on how the first six games went than projecting how the next six will go:
A+
Texas A&M (6-0, 3-0): The Aggies may be the most aesthetically pleasing team in the SEC. They’re solid on both sides of the ball, run and pass well, and defend the run and pass about evenly. They own the SEC’s best nonconference win, at Notre Dame, and while the rest of the Aggies’ games have been at home, they controlled all of them.
Quarterback Marcel Reed has been solid, a word that describes this team well, though there are also standouts. Defensive end Cashius Howell leads the SEC with eight sacks — three of which came on three straight plays against Utah State. Receiver Mario Craver leads the SEC with 634 yards.
A
Ole Miss (6-0, 3-0): The Washington State and Arkansas games were closer than they should have been, which is why it isn’t a perfect grade. There also haven’t been any “wow” wins, with beating LSU at home the only ranked win. But this wasn’t supposed to be a great team — only picked seventh in the SEC preseason poll, behind South Carolina and Florida — and the Rebels are unbeaten. That’s with switching quarterbacks to Trinidad Chambliss, who few had on their bingo cards before the season. Kewan Lacy (587 rushing yards, eight TDs) has emerged as a force. The top issue seems to be the defense, which is 11th in the SEC in yards per play and ninth in scoring.
Tennessee (5-1, 2-1): The Volunteers were picked ninth in the SEC preseason media poll, and that almost seemed generous, considering the late-spring loss of Nico Iamaleava and having to plug in Joey Aguilar, who had been an OK quarterback in the Sun Belt. Well, turns out he’s a good quarterback in the SEC, ranking second in yards per attempt and leading the SEC’s highest-scoring offense.
That’s why the grade is good: 5-1, even after the quarterback switch, looked doable before the season, given the schedule. But the only loss was a missed field goal from being a win, and the Vols have looked much better than the SEC’s ninth-best team.
A-
Vanderbilt (5-1, 1-1): Even with raised expectations, before the season, you could look at the first half of the season and see the Commodores being 3-3. Instead, they won away at Virginia Tech and South Carolina, and hung in there at Alabama. The ‘Dores have a +101 scoring differential versus. FBS teams.
At this point last year, it was +12. Vanderbilt has the SEC’s top-ranked offense, while the defense has been more middle-of-the-road (ninth in YPP), mostly by what Utah State did in garbage time and Alabama in the second half. The rest of the schedule will be tougher, but Clark Lea looks in good shape to improve on last year’s 7-6 record.
Mississippi State (4-2, 0-2): Yes, this is relative to expectations. The Bulldogs were coming off a 2-10, winless SEC season. They spent their non-conference portion doubling their wins from last year, including beating defending Big 12 champion Arizona State. In their two SEC games, they have been competitive, taking Tennessee to overtime and hanging at Texas A&M until the third quarter.
QB Blake Shapen’s return has been a lift, but the big improvement is on defense, where Mississippi State has gone from 16th to eighth in the SEC.
B+
Alabama (5-1, 3-0): Do you just throw out the Florida State game at this point? Well, it counts and could still hurt the Crimson Tide come Playoff time. But leading rusher Jam Miller missed that and the next two games, as did star defensive tackle Tim Keenan. Quarterback Ty Simpson, meanwhile, wasn’t the problem against Florida State and has emerged as a Heisman candidate.
Beating Georgia canceled out the Florida State loss, and otherwise, Kalen DeBoer’s team has taken care of business.
Alabama lost an early game to Florida State, but now quarterback Ty Simpson has emerged as a Heisman candidate. (Butch Dill / Getty Images)
Missouri (5-1, 1-1): When Beau Pribula left Penn State, who would have thought midway through the season that he’d have his team in a better position than the Nittany Lions … well, anyway. Of course, it’s not all Pribula: Running back Ahmad Hardy is the SEC’s leading rusher, and Mizzou has the second-ranked defense.
It has helped that every game has been at home, and Mizzou did lose to the only ranked team (Alabama) it played. But it was a down-to-the-wire game in which the Tigers acquitted themselves well. Eli Drinkwitz and company have done a good job.
Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1): Brent Venables has gone from the hot seat to Playoff contender to … well, the hot seat could come back if the Sooners keep playing like they did against Texas, especially with five ranked teams remaining. But we’re judging by performance, and the performance of QB John Mateer — when fully healthy — invigorated the program.
The game versus Michigan was a test that needed to be passed, and it was with a win. The loss to Texas was a setback, but the Sooners still have a formula that could take them places: The SEC’s top-ranked defense plus a dynamic quarterback — if the thumb was the reason Mateer threw three picks and the offense struggled against the Longhorns.
B
LSU (5-1, 2-1): The defense gets an A, the offense … not that. Probably a D, relative to expectations. Still, in the macro, the Tigers are in an acceptable position. Brian Kelly made the opener a huge deal, and it worked, even if Clemson turned out to be a paper Tiger. The loss at Ole Miss was at least close. But the optimism is muted because of the schedule — three road games, three ranked opponents — and because the offense seems to be what it’s going to be.
B-
Georgia (5-1, 3-1): The eye-of-the-beholder team. If Tennessee makes a field goal to win in regulation, and if the goal-line fumble at Auburn is ruled the other way, Smart’s team is 3-3. The counter is that if Smart makes the right call on fourth-and-inches, or if freshman receiver Talyn Taylor catches a sure touchdown pass, Georgia beats Alabama and is 6-0. First-half Georgia has also been bad, outscored 55-34 in those three close games, but second-half Georgia has been excellent, outscoring those same three teams 51-20.
Gunner Stockton, the question for many entering the season, has been solid. The bigger question is the defense, which is mostly responsible for those slow starts before rallying in the second half.
D+
Texas (4-2, 1-1): If not for the win over the Sooners, the Longhorns’ grade would be worse. But it’s potentially a season-saving win. Arch Manning finally looked right, and the defense looked much better than the disaster it was at Florida. If you forgot about the Longhorns’ first five games and just took last Saturday, they’re the team they were expected to be. But you can’t ignore the first five, especially Florida.
Auburn (3-3, 0-3): The opening-week win at Baylor was good and still looks good. The three losses are all to Playoff contenders and were by 10 points or less. And two come with asterisks because of officiating, at least to Hugh Freeze and some others. It still feels disappointing because of the offense, which looked so promising with Jackson Arnold in the opener, but arrives at midseason as the second-worst in the SEC in yards per play.
Freeze is an offensive coach and has two good receivers (Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton), but he hasn’t been able to unlock Arnold. It’s Year 3 — the offense shouldn’t be the issue.
D-
South Carolina (3-3, 1-3): This was not a Playoff-or-bust year, but any team with LaNorris Sellers on one side of the ball and Dylan Stewart on the other should be better. The only power conference wins are over arguably (or not arguably) the worst teams in the ACC (Virginia Tech) and SEC (Kentucky). The Gamecocks were routed at home by Vanderbilt. They were competitive at LSU and Missouri, but only that competitive. Shane Beamer has already made one staff change, firing his offensive line coach. He may need to make more changes.
F+
Florida (2-4, 1-2): The upset of Texas is the only salvation. The South Florida loss was ugly. The other three losses — all on the road to good teams — are each acceptable on their own, but one needed to be a win. DJ Lagway has been sorely disappointing. It’s all led to the widespread assumption that Billy Napier will be let go, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Arkansas (2-4, 0-2): The only two wins are against Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, and Sam Pittman has already been fired. The only reason it’s not an all-out F is that three of the losses — the road ones — were competitive. The Notre Dame debacle is what got Pittman fired. Bobby Petrino, the interim and aspiring permanent coach, gets credit for having the SEC’s second-ranked offense. But the real hero is QB Taylen Green — third in the SEC with 1,654 passing yards, fourth with 504 rushing yards — whose season is being wasted.
F
Kentucky (2-3, 0-3): Expectations were low, and the Wildcats have met them. The only two wins are against non-power conference foes, neither of which has a winning record. The three losses are by an average of 16.7 points. The offense ranks last in the SEC. The defense ranks second to last. The rare bright spot has been RB Seth McGowan (431 rushing yards), but his impact is limited when you’re playing from behind most of the time. In the portal era, no situation should be hopeless. And Mark Stoops, the dean of SEC coaches, does have a track record. But barring some injection of life into the program, this seems hopeless.