A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey finds 48% of voters support Democrat James Talarico for U.S. Senate, 46% Republican Ken Paxton, 1% Libertarian Ted Brown, and 5% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Talarico’s support increases to 49%, Paxton to 48%, and Brown to 3%.
“Since August, Talarico’s support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If it holds, Talarico benefits.”
In the race for Governor, 49% support incumbent Republican Greg Abbott, while 45% support Democrat Gina Hinojosa, and 1% support Libertarian Pat Dixon. Four percent are undecided. With the candidate undecided voters lean toward accounted for, 51% support Abbott, 47% Hinojosa, and 2% Dixon.
The economy remains the top issue for a plurality of Texas voters at 39%, up three points from September, followed by immigration at 16%, threats to democracy at 13%, education at 12%, and healthcare at 9%.
Voters whose top issue is the economy split evenly between the leading Senate candidates: 47% support Paxton, 46% support Talarico, and 6% are undecided.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Texas survey was conducted October 17-19, 2026. The overall sample of Texas likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.1 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting registered voters via probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web, landline using interactive voice response, and additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish.
All MMS respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was administered using QuestionPro.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.