AUSTIN, Texas — Some experts say the results of a new congressional map in Texas may not deliver the Republican gains once expected.

As Republican lawmakers redrew Texas’ congressional districts in 2025, the party eyed as many as five new GOP seats in Congress in the 2026 midterms.

The new maps, signed into law by Gov. Greg Abbott, were designed to help Republicans increase their U.S. House majority, but recent evidence and polling show outcomes could be far less certain.

Kareem Crayton, vice president at the Brennan Center for Justice’s Washington, D.C. office and an expert on race, politics and law, said the gerrymandering in Texas could ultimately backfire.

RELATED| 19 million Texans are registered to vote, breaking record

He said that the new district lines, which were based on Republican performance in the state during the 2024 election, could prove to be a gamble.

“It is always perilous to draw districts in the middle of a decade. We’ve taken that view for a long period of time,” Crayton said. “You can’t be sure that what you are drawing, based on the most recent election, is going to work for the next election.”

According to Crayton, recent primary turnout has shown higher-than-expected voting rates in African American communities.

“What we have seen in the preliminary evidence from other primary elections is that African Americans, in particular, are voting at rates much higher than expected. And if it carries over into the general election, it could maybe result in a lot of blowback for Republicans that they weren’t expecting,” Crayton said.

Some of the closest races are in South Texas, where Hispanic voters shifted toward President Donald Trump in 2024 but recent polling now suggests the Republican advantage has narrowed.

A survey by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found Democratic candidates leading in several battleground districts, including TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34.

“We’re seeing a return of many South Texas Hispanic voters to Democratic candidates,” Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University and co-author of the report, told CBS Austin last month. Jones said Republicans may gain between one and three seats, not the five initially projected.

KEYE

Kendall Scudder, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, said Democrats are focusing on delivering policy wins that will keep those voters in their coalition moving forward.

“The challenge will be when Democrats win this election, delivering in a real big way that these folks can feel it. And if we do that, I think you’ll see a political realignment for years to come,” Scudder said.

Andy Hogue, communications director for the Travis County GOP, stressed the stakes for Republicans in the midterm election.

“If we don’t get more Republicans in Congress, we’re going to lose the traditional values of our republic,” Hogue said.

Political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus from the University of Houston believes Republicans will still view any increase in seats as a win, even if it falls short of their original goal.

“Republicans are fighting for every seat. Their goal is to try to maximize the number of opportunities that they have.” Rottinghaus said.

To find your 2026 Congressional district in Texas, you can use the state’s Who Represents Me? tool.